January 29, 2011

NBA Ratings January 29, 2011

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:03 am

The Spurs are now clearly the best team in NBA. These ratings give twice as much weight to last night’s games as opening day. Memphis is a much better team than their record indicates. I believe the fight for 8th in the West will be one to watch closely.

Rank Team Off Def Overall
1 San Antonio Spurs 3.80 -3.71 7.52
2 Boston Celtics -1.77 -7.80 6.03
3 Los Angeles Lakers 2.31 -3.30 5.61
4 Chicago Bulls -3.26 -8.85 5.59
5 Miami Heat 1.09 -4.15 5.24
6 Orlando Magic 1.48 -3.68 5.16
7 New Orleans Hornets -5.18 -8.51 3.33
8 Denver Nuggets 8.09 5.32 2.77
9 Oklahoma City Thunder 5.12 2.68 2.45
10 Dallas Mavericks -1.60 -3.87 2.27
11 Memphis Grizzlies 0.32 -1.76 2.08
12 Portland Trail Blazers -3.89 -5.66 1.78
13 New York Knickerbockers 7.22 6.17 1.05
14 Atlanta Hawks -2.18 -2.98 0.80
15 Houston Rockets 4.80 4.29 0.51
16 Philadelphia 76ers -1.07 -0.94 -0.13
17 Utah Jazz 0.92 1.20 -0.28
18 Milwaukee Bucks -5.93 -5.60 -0.33
19 Indiana Pacers -0.92 0.40 -1.32
20 Los Angeles Clippers 0.12 2.34 -2.21
21 Golden State Warriors 5.80 8.02 -2.22
22 Phoenix Suns 4.85 7.13 -2.28
23 Charlotte Bobcats -5.94 -2.87 -3.07
24 Detroit Pistons -4.33 -1.13 -3.21
25 Sacramento Kings -2.04 1.89 -3.94
26 Minnesota Timberwolves 4.93 9.52 -4.59
27 New Jersey Nets -6.16 -0.95 -5.21
28 Washington Wizards -2.91 3.20 -6.11
29 Toronto Raptors 0.98 7.55 -6.56
30 Cleveland Cavaliers -4.66 6.07 -10.73

January 24, 2011

Super Bowl Pick

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:29 am

GB 21 Pitt 18. Here are ratings with more weight given to more recent games.

Team off def overall Rank
New England Patriots 12.91 -1.59 14.50 1
Green Bay Packers 4.42 -8.53 12.95 2
Pittsburgh Steelers 4.10 -6.02 10.13 3
New York Jets 3.40 -6.05 9.45 4
Baltimore Ravens 3.71 -5.06 8.77 5
Atlanta Falcons 5.09 -1.00 6.08 6
San Diego Chargers 4.04 -1.86 5.90 7
Chicago Bears -0.63 -4.67 4.04 8
New York Giants 2.32 -0.69 3.01 9
Philadelphia Eagles 4.25 1.33 2.92 10
Indianapolis Colts 2.84 0.33 2.51 11
Detroit Lions 2.15 0.14 2.01 12
Tennessee Titans -1.58 -2.48 0.90 13
New Orleans Saints 3.20 2.48 0.72 14
Oakland Raiders 2.22 1.80 0.42 15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.53 -1.85 0.32 16
Minnesota Vikings -3.58 -2.57 -1.02 17
Kansas City Chiefs -2.10 -0.69 -1.40 18
Cincinnati Bengals -0.02 1.65 -1.67 19
Miami Dolphins -4.68 -2.67 -2.02 20
Cleveland Browns -5.23 -3.15 -2.07 21
Houston Texans 1.42 3.71 -2.29 22
Dallas Cowboys 2.22 5.55 -3.32 23
Washington Redskins -4.03 -0.67 -3.36 24
Buffalo Bills -2.26 1.65 -3.90 25
Jacksonville Jaguars -0.56 3.91 -4.47 26
San Francisco 49ers -4.33 1.28 -5.60 27
St. Louis Rams -7.06 0.08 -7.14 28
Seattle Seahawks -0.59 7.66 -8.25 29
Denver Broncos -1.29 7.51 -8.81 30
Arizona Cardinals -7.56 6.83 -14.39 31
Carolina Panthers -11.27 3.62 -14.89 32

January 23, 2011

NBA Ratings January 23

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 5:20 pm

Here are ratings based on all games weighted equally.

Team Off Def Overall
Boston Celtics -0.37 -7.33 6.96
San Antonio Spurs 3.98 -2.89 6.87
Los Angeles Lakers 3.25 -3.07 6.31
Miami Heat 1.92 -4.07 5.99
Orlando Magic 1.36 -4.26 5.63
Chicago Bulls -3.08 -7.55 4.48
Dallas Mavericks -1.85 -5.07 3.22
New Orleans Hornets -4.63 -7.51 2.87
Portland Trail Blazers -3.01 -5.81 2.79
Denver Nuggets 7.05 4.76 2.30
Oklahoma City Thunder 5.08 2.82 2.26
New York Knickerbockers 8.30 6.91 1.39
Memphis Grizzlies 0.19 -0.85 1.03
Utah Jazz 1.19 0.19 1.00
Atlanta Hawks -2.60 -2.95 0.34
Houston Rockets 4.68 4.55 0.13
Milwaukee Bucks -6.44 -5.99 -0.45
Philadelphia 76ers -0.72 -0.16 -0.56
Phoenix Suns 6.87 8.13 -1.27
Indiana Pacers -1.72 0.19 -1.91
Golden State Warriors 4.22 6.57 -2.35
Los Angeles Clippers -0.25 2.14 -2.39
Charlotte Bobcats -6.43 -3.43 -3.01
Detroit Pistons -3.61 0.13 -3.74
Minnesota Timberwolves 4.07 9.13 -5.06
New Jersey Nets -6.20 -0.93 -5.27
Toronto Raptors 1.05 6.54 -5.49
Sacramento Kings -3.07 2.74 -5.81
Washington Wizards -3.61 2.32 -5.93
Cleveland Cavaliers -5.64 4.73 -10.37

 

Here are ratings with more  weight given to more recent games.

 

Rank Team Off Def Overall
1 Boston Celtics -0.82 -7.50 6.68
2 San Antonio Spurs 3.18 -3.31 6.49
3 Los Angeles Lakers 2.88 -3.30 6.19
4 Orlando Magic 2.18 -3.98 6.17
5 Miami Heat 2.01 -3.25 5.26
6 Chicago Bulls -3.16 -7.97 4.81
7 New Orleans Hornets -4.82 -8.26 3.44
8 Oklahoma City Thunder 5.18 2.41 2.78
9 Portland Trail Blazers -2.96 -5.65 2.69
10 Denver Nuggets 7.30 5.02 2.28
11 New York Knickerbockers 8.04 6.09 1.95
12 Dallas Mavericks -2.82 -4.48 1.66
13 Memphis Grizzlies 0.46 -0.96 1.42
14 Atlanta Hawks -2.54 -2.98 0.45
15 Utah Jazz 1.17 0.76 0.41
16 Houston Rockets 4.85 4.69 0.16
17 Philadelphia 76ers -0.27 -0.14 -0.13
18 Milwaukee Bucks -6.48 -5.99 -0.49
19 Golden State Warriors 5.10 7.02 -1.92
20 Indiana Pacers -1.66 0.35 -2.01
21 Los Angeles Clippers 0.18 2.35 -2.17
22 Phoenix Suns 5.87 8.16 -2.29
23 Charlotte Bobcats -6.49 -3.30 -3.19
24 Detroit Pistons -3.87 -0.06 -3.81
25 Minnesota Timberwolves 4.49 8.70 -4.21
26 Sacramento Kings -2.49 2.35 -4.84
27 New Jersey Nets -6.16 -1.10 -5.06
28 Toronto Raptors 1.16 6.92 -5.76
29 Washington Wizards -3.90 2.36 -6.26
30 Cleveland Cavaliers -5.63 5.07 -10.70

NFL PIcks and Ratings

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:19 am

Pitt 20 Jets 17

GB 21 Chi 16

Here are ratings.

Team off def overall Rank
New England Patriots 12.55 -1.54 14.10 1
Green Bay Packers 4.52 -7.97 12.49 2
Pittsburgh Steelers 3.26 -7.10 10.36 3
New York Jets 2.78 -7.09 9.86 4
Baltimore Ravens 3.80 -4.88 8.68 5
San Diego Chargers 3.89 -1.91 5.80 6
Atlanta Falcons 4.76 -1.03 5.79 7
Chicago Bears 0.35 -4.40 4.75 8
New York Giants 2.40 -0.69 3.09 9
Philadelphia Eagles 4.30 1.21 3.09 10
Indianapolis Colts 2.78 0.36 2.41 11
Detroit Lions 2.15 0.09 2.06 12
Tennessee Titans -1.63 -2.48 0.85 13
New Orleans Saints 3.35 2.55 0.80 14
Oakland Raiders 2.25 1.84 0.40 15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.49 -1.81 0.31 16
Minnesota Vikings -3.87 -2.67 -1.20 17
Kansas City Chiefs -2.08 -0.69 -1.39 18
Miami Dolphins -4.19 -2.64 -1.55 19
Cincinnati Bengals 0.20 2.06 -1.86 20
Cleveland Browns -5.22 -3.19 -2.03 21
Houston Texans 1.52 3.84 -2.32 22
Dallas Cowboys 2.40 5.38 -2.98 23
Washington Redskins -4.03 -0.40 -3.63 24
Buffalo Bills -2.12 1.76 -3.87 25
Jacksonville Jaguars -0.58 3.95 -4.53 26
San Francisco 49ers -4.36 1.22 -5.58 27
St. Louis Rams -7.07 0.08 -7.15 28
Seattle Seahawks -0.62 7.96 -8.59 29
Denver Broncos -1.25 7.72 -8.97 30
Arizona Cardinals -7.58 6.79 -14.37 31
Carolina Panthers -11.17 3.68 -14.85 32

January 20, 2011

NBA Ratings thru January 19

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:24 am

Here they are. Again I am giving more weight to more recent games. Spurs have been consistently rated 7-9 points better than average throughout season. Sadly, the Cavs continue to sink further. The Bulls have the best defense while the Knicks and Suns the worst defense.  The Knicks and Thunder have the best offenses while the Bucks have the worst offense. These stats are not pace adjusted.

Rank Team Off Def Overall
1 San Antonio Spurs 4.32 -3.41 7.73
2 Boston Celtics -0.60 -6.74 6.13
3 Miami Heat 1.86 -4.06 5.92
4 Los Angeles Lakers 2.54 -3.36 5.90
5 Orlando Magic 1.55 -4.20 5.75
6 Chicago Bulls -2.88 -7.68 4.80
7 Oklahoma City Thunder 5.54 2.48 3.06
8 Dallas Mavericks -1.55 -4.36 2.81
9 Denver Nuggets 7.17 4.64 2.53
10 Portland Trail Blazers -3.88 -6.30 2.42
11 New Orleans Hornets -4.84 -6.62 1.79
12 New York Knickerbockers 8.79 7.10 1.70
13 Atlanta Hawks -2.09 -3.32 1.22
14 Utah Jazz 1.58 0.41 1.17
15 Memphis Grizzlies 0.02 -0.57 0.59
16 Houston Rockets 4.37 4.40 -0.03
17 Philadelphia 76ers -0.52 -0.16 -0.36
18 Milwaukee Bucks -6.30 -5.92 -0.38
19 Los Angeles Clippers -0.25 1.64 -1.89
20 Golden State Warriors 3.84 6.32 -2.48
21 Indiana Pacers -2.48 0.34 -2.82
22 Charlotte Bobcats -6.44 -3.62 -2.82
23 Phoenix Suns 6.26 9.33 -3.07
24 Detroit Pistons -2.70 0.38 -3.08
25 Minnesota Timberwolves 3.87 8.50 -4.63
26 Toronto Raptors 1.25 6.20 -4.95
27 New Jersey Nets -5.76 -0.62 -5.15
28 Washington Wizards -3.42 2.17 -5.59
29 Sacramento Kings -3.42 2.44 -5.86
30 Cleveland Cavaliers -5.82 4.59 -10.41

January 15, 2011

Weighted NBA Ratings January 15

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:34 am

Here I gave 50% more weight to most recent game compared to season’s first game. Note the Mavs and Celtics fall due to injuries to Dirk and KG,

Team Off Def Overall
San Antonio Spurs 4.53 -2.87 7.40
Los Angeles Lakers 3.06 -3.26 6.32
Miami Heat 1.87 -4.28 6.15
Boston Celtics -0.44 -6.51 6.07
Orlando Magic 0.88 -4.40 5.29
Chicago Bulls -3.13 -7.12 3.99
Dallas Mavericks -0.90 -4.47 3.56
Oklahoma City Thunder 5.93 2.50 3.43
Portland Trail Blazers -3.57 -6.19 2.62
Utah Jazz 1.95 -0.53 2.48
Denver Nuggets 6.70 4.50 2.20
New Orleans Hornets -4.53 -6.47 1.94
Memphis Grizzlies 0.33 -1.03 1.36
New York Knickerbockers 8.66 7.32 1.34
Atlanta Hawks -2.67 -3.53 0.86
Houston Rockets 4.48 4.32 0.16
Philadelphia 76ers -0.73 -0.28 -0.45
Milwaukee Bucks -6.13 -5.58 -0.55
Golden State Warriors 3.52 5.77 -2.25
Phoenix Suns 6.57 9.41 -2.84
Charlotte Bobcats -6.25 -3.40 -2.85
Indiana Pacers -3.02 -0.01 -3.01
Los Angeles Clippers -1.48 1.56 -3.04
Detroit Pistons -3.35 0.61 -3.96
Minnesota Timberwolves 3.75 7.74 -3.99
Toronto Raptors 2.48 7.28 -4.80
Sacramento Kings -3.50 2.34 -5.84
Washington Wizards -3.44 2.41 -5.85
New Jersey Nets -6.27 -0.40 -5.87
Cleveland Cavaliers -5.30 4.59 -9.89

January 12, 2011

NBA Ratings January 12

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:01 am

Here they are. Spurs, Celtics, Heat and Lakers vritually even at top while Cleveland has sunk to the bottom.

Rank Team Off Def Overall
1 San Antonio Spurs 5.77 -1.20 6.97
2 Boston Celtics -0.43 -7.26 6.83
3 Miami Heat 2.06 -4.64 6.70
4 Los Angeles Lakers 3.66 -3.02 6.68
5 Orlando Magic 0.45 -4.62 5.08
6 Dallas Mavericks 0.04 -4.62 4.66
7 Utah Jazz 2.00 -1.77 3.76
8 Chicago Bulls -3.09 -6.62 3.53
9 Oklahoma City Thunder 5.27 2.38 2.89
10 Portland Trail Blazers -3.44 -6.23 2.79
11 New Orleans Hornets -4.36 -6.23 1.87
12 Denver Nuggets 6.52 4.80 1.72
13 Atlanta Hawks -3.44 -4.82 1.38
14 Memphis Grizzlies 0.46 -0.86 1.32
15 New York Knickerbockers 9.06 7.77 1.30
16 Houston Rockets 4.64 3.84 0.80
17 Philadelphia 76ers -1.81 -1.24 -0.57
18 Milwaukee Bucks -7.40 -6.73 -0.67
19 Indiana Pacers -1.91 0.19 -2.09
20 Phoenix Suns 6.18 9.07 -2.89
21 Charlotte Bobcats -6.34 -3.17 -3.17
22 Los Angeles Clippers -1.71 1.80 -3.50
23 Golden State Warriors 2.00 5.88 -3.88
24 Toronto Raptors 2.64 6.89 -4.25
25 Detroit Pistons -3.07 1.42 -4.48
26 Minnesota Timberwolves 3.67 8.96 -5.29
27 Washington Wizards -3.10 2.38 -5.47
28 New Jersey Nets -5.94 -0.08 -5.86
29 Sacramento Kings -3.36 3.23 -6.58
30 Cleveland Cavaliers -5.05 4.54 -9.58

January 10, 2011

NFL PIcks and Ratings

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:09 am

Here are latest ratings. I gave 20% more weight to playoff games than last week of regular season, and more weight to more recent games.

Team off def overall Rank
New England Patriots 13.47 -2.78 16.25 1
Green Bay Packers 2.84 -8.20 11.04 2
Baltimore Ravens 3.66 -6.67 10.33 3
Pittsburgh Steelers 1.42 -7.68 9.10 4
Atlanta Falcons 5.02 -3.00 8.02 5
New York Jets 2.25 -5.44 7.69 6
San Diego Chargers 4.04 -1.72 5.76 7
Chicago Bears -0.40 -5.24 4.84 8
New York Giants 2.30 -0.51 2.82 9
Philadelphia Eagles 4.33 1.60 2.73 10
Indianapolis Colts 2.72 0.43 2.29 11
New Orleans Saints 3.82 2.68 1.14 12
Tennessee Titans -1.29 -2.17 0.88 13
Detroit Lions 2.26 1.55 0.70 14
Oakland Raiders 2.39 2.22 0.16 15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.55 -1.63 0.08 16
Minnesota Vikings -3.27 -2.16 -1.10 17
Kansas City Chiefs -2.02 -0.51 -1.51 18
Cincinnati Bengals 0.65 2.24 -1.60 19
Miami Dolphins -4.19 -2.50 -1.69 20
Cleveland Browns -5.09 -2.84 -2.26 21
Houston Texans 1.54 4.10 -2.56 22
Dallas Cowboys 2.22 5.32 -3.11 23
Washington Redskins -3.89 -0.59 -3.30 24
Buffalo Bills -1.84 1.54 -3.38 25
Jacksonville Jaguars -0.35 4.23 -4.58 26
San Francisco 49ers -3.86 1.69 -5.55 27
St. Louis Rams -7.03 0.00 -7.03 28
Denver Broncos -1.08 7.78 -8.86 29
Seattle Seahawks -1.55 7.43 -8.99 30
Carolina Panthers -10.18 3.84 -14.02 31
Arizona Cardinals -7.35 6.97 -14.31 32

Picks for next week follow:

  • GB 21 Atl 20
  • Pitt 19 Balt 18
  • Chi 30 Sea 14
  • NE 31 NYJ 20

January 8, 2011

NBA Ratings January 8 2011

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 11:34 am

Here are latest NBA ratings.  Dallas slips without Caron and Dirk. Celtics, Heat and Spurs are virutally even at the top.

Rank Team Off Def Overall
1 Boston Celtics -0.06 -7.38 7.31
2 San Antonio Spurs 6.12 -0.95 7.07
3 Miami Heat 2.08 -4.93 7.01
4 Los Angeles Lakers 3.49 -2.01 5.49
5 Dallas Mavericks -0.12 -4.93 4.81
6 Orlando Magic -0.62 -5.14 4.52
7 Portland Trail Blazers -3.16 -6.98 3.82
8 Utah Jazz 2.16 -1.51 3.68
9 Chicago Bulls -2.58 -6.03 3.45
10 Memphis Grizzlies 1.25 -1.66 2.91
11 Oklahoma City Thunder 4.67 2.26 2.41
12 New Orleans Hornets -4.59 -6.34 1.75
13 Denver Nuggets 6.60 5.05 1.55
14 New York Knickerbockers 9.20 8.58 0.62
15 Houston Rockets 4.79 4.38 0.41
16 Atlanta Hawks -2.61 -2.95 0.34
17 Philadelphia 76ers -2.33 -2.03 -0.30
18 Milwaukee Bucks -6.63 -5.67 -0.96
19 Phoenix Suns 7.44 8.62 -1.18
20 Indiana Pacers -2.93 -0.05 -2.88
21 Golden State Warriors 2.39 5.30 -2.90
22 Charlotte Bobcats -6.51 -2.74 -3.77
23 Los Angeles Clippers -2.03 1.86 -3.89
24 Toronto Raptors 2.27 6.38 -4.11
25 Detroit Pistons -3.21 1.17 -4.38
26 Minnesota Timberwolves 4.44 9.62 -5.18
27 Washington Wizards -3.21 2.26 -5.47
28 New Jersey Nets -6.35 -0.33 -6.02
29 Sacramento Kings -5.66 1.49 -7.15
30 Cleveland Cavaliers -4.31 4.67 -8.98

January 5, 2011

Is Amare the MVP?

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 5:00 pm

The Knicks are much improved, no doubt about it. Amare is getting MVP buzz. While I am sure that his off court contributions have been large, on the court Landry Fields has been far more valuable. Let’s look at how the Knicks play (adjusted for strength of opponent) for various combinations of players in and out.

  Fields Fields Amare Amare Felton Felton
In in out in out in out
Chandler 10.66438 -6.05138 7.673903 -6.36403 2.617886 11.85024
Felton 5.638172 -12.3608 3.693118 -18.9955 0.034845 dnp
Fields 6.904535 dnp 7.387693 3.951502 5.638172 13.84392
Gallinari 6.351701 -6.31495 4.368919 -8.92398 0.853244 14.7098
Stoudemire 7.387693 -5.88418 3.732041 dnp 3.693118 3.988804
Douglas 14.47917 -10.2877 0.127635 -1.89155 -7.64972 9.619348
Wiliams 2.46 -23.88 -9.48 -24 -2.46 -47.51
Turiaf 6.158925 1.965292 6.70552 -0.31522 -4.82142 24.71568
Mozgov -11.5203 -21.2245 -11.2943 -19.0214 -18.2633 -7.29916
Randolph 1.033955 -29.6029 -60.9264 -10.0715 -30.8805 -16.2787
Mason -71.0422 -22.5412 -45.6676 -21.306 -71.3564 -25.9837
Walker 13.65583 -2.73657 -2.02586 5.006023 -1.76351 4.516012

We see that with Amare in and Fields in Knicks play 7.4 points (all numbers areper 48 minutes and adjusted for strength of opposition) better than average but with Fields out Knicks play 5.9 points worse than average. With Fields in and Amare out the Knicks play 4 points better than average!. Comparing the first column of numbers with the 2nd column you can see that just about anyone goes better with Landry in than out. A few more numbers:

  • With Fields in Knicks are 7 points better than average; with him out Knicks are 9 points worse than average. This is consistent with Fields’ adjutsed +/- rating of +14. Amare’s adjusted +/- rating is +2.
  • With Amare out and Fields in Knicks are fine: 4 points better than average.
  • By the way, you can see that from the last 2 columns the Felton for all-star buzz is not justified. In many cases the Knicks are better off if Felton is out rather than in.

The nice thing about this is that an unheralded 2nd round pick who does the “little things” can make a big difference!

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