Here are updated NFL ratings. I tried a method (not least squares) that lessens the weight of outliers. The Titans’ titanic win over the Eagles lifted them ahead of the Steelers. AFC still rocks with the top 8 teams. The poor Chargers are a solid team but continually snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
| Team |
off |
def |
overall |
| Tennessee Titans |
6.56 |
-6.48 |
13.04 |
| New York Jets |
6.46 |
-5.23 |
11.69 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
4.92 |
-6.06 |
10.99 |
| New England Patriots |
5.66 |
-1.51 |
7.17 |
| Baltimore Ravens |
0.96 |
-5.71 |
6.67 |
| Kansas City Chiefs |
1.52 |
-4.56 |
6.08 |
| Indianapolis Colts |
2.82 |
-2.60 |
5.42 |
| San Diego Chargers |
1.83 |
-1.13 |
2.95 |
| Chicago Bears |
-3.00 |
-5.75 |
2.75 |
| Washington Redskins |
-3.21 |
-5.87 |
2.66 |
| Houston Texans |
7.75 |
5.35 |
2.40 |
| Green Bay Packers |
2.20 |
-0.06 |
2.26 |
| New York Giants |
2.27 |
0.15 |
2.12 |
| Minnesota Vikings |
-2.53 |
-4.49 |
1.96 |
| Detroit Lions |
4.59 |
2.68 |
1.91 |
| Atlanta Falcons |
1.02 |
-0.75 |
1.76 |
| Philadelphia Eagles |
2.76 |
1.60 |
1.17 |
| Miami Dolphins |
-2.06 |
-2.48 |
0.42 |
| Dallas Cowboys |
3.90 |
3.48 |
0.42 |
| Seattle Seahawks |
-1.30 |
-1.29 |
-0.01 |
| Denver Broncos |
1.28 |
3.63 |
-2.36 |
| Cleveland Browns |
-4.49 |
-1.57 |
-2.92 |
| Cincinnati Bengals |
1.01 |
4.44 |
-3.42 |
| St. Louis Rams |
-4.90 |
-1.34 |
-3.56 |
| Oakland Raiders |
-0.89 |
2.70 |
-3.58 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
-4.48 |
1.35 |
-5.83 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars |
-2.68 |
4.69 |
-7.37 |
| New Orleans Saints |
-3.58 |
4.76 |
-8.34 |
| Arizona Cardinals |
-5.55 |
3.34 |
-8.88 |
| Buffalo Bills |
-1.74 |
9.40 |
-11.13 |
| San Francisco 49ers |
-5.81 |
5.38 |
-11.19 |
| Carolina Panthers |
-11.31 |
3.93 |
-15.24 |
Here are updated NFL Ratings. AFC has the 6 best teams and looks to be a lock to win the Super Bowl. Carolina and Buffalo have been awful. Carolina has the worst offense (10.5 points worse than average). The Patriots have the best offense while the Steelers and Ravens have the top defenses. The Lions are the most underrated team while the Saints are nowhere as good as last year.
| Team |
off |
def |
overall |
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
4.37 |
-8.33 |
12.71 |
| Tennessee Titans |
5.81 |
-4.71 |
10.51 |
| New York Jets |
5.94 |
-4.26 |
10.20 |
| Baltimore Ravens |
-0.36 |
-8.70 |
8.34 |
| New England Patriots |
10.36 |
3.06 |
7.30 |
| Indianapolis Colts |
6.41 |
-0.26 |
6.67 |
| Atlanta Falcons |
0.78 |
-4.09 |
4.88 |
| Philadelphia Eagles |
4.49 |
-0.33 |
4.81 |
| Green Bay Packers |
1.61 |
-1.94 |
3.55 |
| Detroit Lions |
6.64 |
3.09 |
3.55 |
| Kansas City Chiefs |
-1.53 |
-4.42 |
2.89 |
| New York Giants |
0.35 |
-2.50 |
2.85 |
| Chicago Bears |
-2.54 |
-4.49 |
1.95 |
| Denver Broncos |
2.16 |
0.39 |
1.77 |
| Minnesota Vikings |
-3.80 |
-5.14 |
1.34 |
| San Diego Chargers |
4.31 |
2.99 |
1.32 |
| Dallas Cowboys |
1.78 |
0.80 |
0.99 |
| Washington Redskins |
-3.15 |
-2.67 |
-0.49 |
| Seattle Seahawks |
-0.90 |
-0.27 |
-0.63 |
| Cincinnati Bengals |
-0.84 |
0.84 |
-1.68 |
| New Orleans Saints |
-0.40 |
1.54 |
-1.95 |
| Miami Dolphins |
-2.99 |
-0.79 |
-2.21 |
| Houston Texans |
5.10 |
7.37 |
-2.26 |
| Cleveland Browns |
-2.66 |
0.37 |
-3.03 |
| St. Louis Rams |
-6.51 |
-1.57 |
-4.94 |
| Oakland Raiders |
-3.17 |
3.57 |
-6.73 |
| San Francisco 49ers |
-4.66 |
2.46 |
-7.12 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
-4.62 |
3.67 |
-8.28 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars |
-4.24 |
4.25 |
-8.49 |
| Arizona Cardinals |
-3.43 |
7.48 |
-10.91 |
| Buffalo Bills |
-3.78 |
9.52 |
-13.30 |
| Carolina Panthers |
-10.53 |
3.07 |
-13.60 |
Here are updated NFL ratings. You can see Pittsburgh’s and Baltimore’s defense are great (10.2 points better than average) and Carolina’s offense is poor (9.67 points worse than average). The Lions are much better than people think. The top 5 teams are from AFC. Home edge has climbed to 3.3 points per game. The AFC North is a powerhouse division with 4 of the league’s top 15 teams.
| Team |
off |
def |
overall |
| Pittsburgh Steelers |
5.285 |
-10.221 |
15.51 |
| Baltimore Ravens |
1.009 |
-9.219 |
10.23 |
| Tennessee Titans |
6.305 |
-2.719 |
9.02 |
| New York Jets |
5.895 |
-2.860 |
8.76 |
| Indianapolis Colts |
6.567 |
-0.590 |
7.16 |
| Atlanta Falcons |
0.778 |
-6.112 |
6.89 |
| Green Bay Packers |
2.706 |
-3.077 |
5.78 |
| Kansas City Chiefs |
-3.557 |
-8.771 |
5.21 |
| New England Patriots |
9.454 |
4.357 |
5.10 |
| Detroit Lions |
8.068 |
3.692 |
4.38 |
| Chicago Bears |
-2.329 |
-6.623 |
4.29 |
| Philadelphia Eagles |
2.192 |
-0.771 |
2.96 |
| San Diego Chargers |
6.091 |
3.532 |
2.56 |
| New York Giants |
0.489 |
-1.272 |
1.76 |
| Cincinnati Bengals |
0.252 |
-1.504 |
1.76 |
| Denver Broncos |
2.323 |
0.840 |
1.48 |
| Cleveland Browns |
-0.311 |
-0.644 |
0.33 |
| Dallas Cowboys |
0.881 |
0.571 |
0.31 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
0.395 |
0.513 |
-0.12 |
| Minnesota Vikings |
-6.533 |
-5.417 |
-1.12 |
| Washington Redskins |
-3.806 |
-2.026 |
-1.78 |
| Seattle Seahawks |
-4.628 |
-1.002 |
-3.63 |
| Houston Texans |
2.152 |
6.450 |
-4.30 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars |
-2.104 |
4.575 |
-6.68 |
| New Orleans Saints |
-2.108 |
4.609 |
-6.72 |
| Miami Dolphins |
-5.584 |
1.294 |
-6.88 |
| St. Louis Rams |
-7.143 |
0.209 |
-7.35 |
| Oakland Raiders |
-1.722 |
5.910 |
-7.63 |
| San Francisco 49ers |
-2.659 |
6.535 |
-9.19 |
| Arizona Cardinals |
-4.298 |
7.491 |
-11.79 |
| Carolina Panthers |
-9.674 |
2.392 |
-12.07 |
| Buffalo Bills |
-4.388 |
9.858 |
-14.25 |
