Yesterday we predicted the Heat to be 66-16 next season. Applying our Adjusted +/- ratings for the Laker’s players from last season and using last season’s minutes played (adjusted in Blake’s case) we get a projected record for the Lakers of 65-17! As you can see below, Blake and Barnes are two great pickups. They are easily superior to Brown and Farmar. The predicted wins is based on the well-known Puthagorean formula that converts points better than average (in this case 10) to games one. Looks like these teams will be well-matched, if they make it to the finals. As the Celtics showed this year, nobody should take a finals trip as a given!
| Player |
Min |
Rating |
| Kobe |
34 |
7.9 |
| Gasol |
29 |
1.1 |
| Artest |
32 |
2.9 |
| Bynum |
22 |
-2.5 |
| Odom |
32 |
3.1 |
| Blake |
19 |
0.6 |
| Barnes |
26 |
3.2 |
| Powell |
7 |
-11.7 |
| Mbenga |
4 |
-3.2 |
| Sasha |
7 |
0.4 |
| Fisher |
28 |
1.4 |
The Heat have pretty much filled out their roster. I assumed that players play the same number of minutes as they did last year and play at the same Adjusted +/- level of performance as last year, I predict 66-16 for the Heat.
I am so sorry Holland lost! Oh well there is always 2014 for USA and Holland. Here are final ratings based on 3 years of scores. I switched to multiplicative ratings, because they fit the data a little better. So Spain is number 1 and they are 60% better than average on offense and give up an amazing 26% as many goals as an average World Cup team. Spain against an average World Cup Team would be favored by 1.73 goals.
| Rank |
Team |
off |
def |
Rating |
| 1 |
SPAIN |
1.600491 |
0.263129 |
1.725197 |
| 2 |
GERMANY |
1.919907 |
0.642235 |
1.648196 |
| 3 |
BRAZIL |
1.62212 |
0.586247 |
1.336277 |
| 4 |
ARGENTINA |
1.629185 |
0.726732 |
1.164165 |
| 5 |
PORTUGAL |
1.738073 |
0.863527 |
1.128164 |
| 6 |
NETHERLANDS |
1.490696 |
0.70737 |
1.01049 |
| 7 |
ENGLAND |
1.255286 |
0.884191 |
0.478713 |
| 8 |
URUGUAY |
1.454914 |
1.173513 |
0.363007 |
| 9 |
Ghana |
1.074044 |
0.846387 |
0.293678 |
| 11 |
SERBIA |
1.005404 |
0.812412 |
0.24896 |
| 10 |
USA |
1.319989 |
1.147684 |
0.222274 |
| 12 |
SLOVENIA |
1.118327 |
0.970938 |
0.190132 |
| 13 |
NIGERIA |
0.936766 |
0.856503 |
0.10354 |
| 15 |
PARAGUAY |
0.627982 |
0.579474 |
0.062575 |
| 14 |
IVORY COAST |
1.096652 |
1.086852 |
0.012642 |
| 16 |
JAPAN |
0.90484 |
0.915593 |
-0.01387 |
| 17 |
ITALY |
0.987418 |
1.055464 |
-0.08778 |
| 18 |
MEXICO |
1.04973 |
1.128346 |
-0.10141 |
| 19 |
FRANCE |
0.755251 |
0.852958 |
-0.12604 |
| 20 |
AUSTRALIA |
1.02993 |
1.177421 |
-0.19026 |
| 21 |
CHILE |
0.865393 |
1.133278 |
-0.34557 |
| 22 |
DENMARK |
0.975721 |
1.274835 |
-0.38586 |
| 23 |
SWITZERLAND |
0.707354 |
1.056961 |
-0.45099 |
| 24 |
Algeria |
0.500465 |
0.893977 |
-0.50763 |
| 25 |
S AFRICA |
0.817119 |
1.256286 |
-0.56653 |
| 27 |
GREECE |
0.656337 |
1.14963 |
-0.63635 |
| 26 |
CAMEROON |
0.748367 |
1.249829 |
-0.64689 |
| 28 |
HONDURAS |
-0.58351 |
-0.07734 |
-0.65295 |
| 29 |
SOUTH KOREA |
0.768098 |
1.311454 |
-0.70093 |
| 30 |
SLOVAKIA |
0.891648 |
1.455771 |
-0.72772 |
| 31 |
NEW ZEALAND |
0.623655 |
1.763189 |
-1.47 |
| 32 |
NORTH Korea |
0.412345 |
2.255155 |
-2.37722 |
I want Netherlands to win so badly but my model predicts Spain 2 Netherlands 1 in overtime. Spain has 57% chance to win.
Well LeBron, Bosh and wade are on the Heat. Are the Heat a lock to win the NBA title. Let’s try and figure out how good this team will be next year. Based on our Adjusted +/- Ratings we project for 2010-2011 (all player ratings are per 48 minutes.)
- Wade and LeBron each play 11 points better than average. Assume 36 minutes each (most guys get hurt a few games)
- Bosh will play 5 points better than average . 36 minutes
- Chalmer 4 points worse than average. 24 minutes
- Beasley 4 points worse than average. 30 minutes
- The key is in remaining 78 minutes how well will rest of roster play. Let’s try out 2 points thru 6 points worse than average.
Here are projected wins:
| Average Ability |
Projected Wins |
| Rest of team |
Wins |
| -2 |
68 |
| -3 |
66 |
| -4 |
63 |
| -5 |
59 |
| -6 |
56 |
To me the most likely case is rest of roster plays like Chalmers and Beasley (-4). Then we project 63-19 record for Heat which is probably a team good enough to win the East and play the Lakers in a great 7 game series.
Chances of winning cup
- Germany 35.6%
- Spain 27%
- Netherlands 24.8%
- Uruguay 12.6%
Semifinal predictions
NETHERLANDS 2 URUGUAY 1 NETHERLANDS 61% CHANCE TO ADVANCE
GERMANY 1 SPAIN 1 GERMANY WINS ON PENALTY KICKS GERMANY 56% CHANCE OF ADVANCING
What a day for soccer! Dram to equal anything I have seen. Go Netherlands. Here are tomorrow’s picks.
SPAIN 1 PARAGUAY 0 SPAIN 80% CHANCE TO ADVANCE
GERMANY 1 ARGENTINA 1 ARGENTINA ADVANCES ON PENALTY KICKS 56% CHANCE ARGENTINA ADVANCES
