June 14, 2010

World Cup Predictions for June 15

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 5:15 pm

Slovakia 3 New Zealand 1

Ivory Coast 2 Portugal 2

Brazil 2 North Korea 0

NBA Finals Analysis thru Game 5

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 6:43 am

Great series. Highly competitive, although the domination of Boston’s defense makes the games look more like football. So far the Celtics have played 9 points better than average thru the series and Lakers 7 points better than average. Here is a summary of how the lineups have played.

   For the Celtics their starting lineup is +8 points. Bench lineups 9, 10 and 16 have done well for the Celtics (all with Wallace for KG) and they should stick with those.

For the Lakers lineups 2 and 8 (Bryant, Artest,Byum , Fisher with Gasol or Odom) are what works. Lineups 3, 9,15,19,20 and 10 (all with Fisher out) have been disasters. These lineups have lost 47 points!! The Lakers should rest Fisher with either lineups 6,7, 14,or 17. These lineups are +4 points. All these ”good” bench lineups have Artest in.

More specifically, Artest, Odom and Farmar with Bynum or Odom and Sasha or Brown is +3 points in 15 minutes.

Also it is vital to sub Walton in for Artest. When Artest and Walton are both out Lakers are -29 points in 42 minutes. But when Walton is in for Artest Lakers are +12 points in 21 minutes.
     1  R. Allen    Garnett     Perkins     Pierce      Rondo         13.54    95.75  LAL  BOS*      4.01     8        1810_BOS_2010
    2  T. Allen    R. Allen    Davis       Wallace     Robinson       6.70    17.92  LAL  BOS*      0.03     0       73739_BOS_2010
    3  R. Allen    Davis       Garnett     Pierce      Rondo         -1.81    12.52  LAL  BOS*    -15.35    -4        1562_BOS_2010
    4  T. Allen    Davis       Pierce      Wallace     Robinson      -4.77    11.28  LAL  BOS*      0.00     0       74249_BOS_2010
    5  T. Allen    Garnett     Perkins     Pierce      Rondo          2.55    10.75  LAL  BOS*     -8.94    -2        1809_BOS_2010
    6  T. Allen    Davis       Pierce      Rondo       Wallace        1.55    10.59  LAL  BOS*     -4.54    -1        9737_BOS_2010
    7  R. Allen    Davis       Pierce      Rondo       Wallace       -6.81     9.69  LAL  BOS*    -14.95    -3        9738_BOS_2010
    8  R. Allen    Garnett     Pierce      Rondo       Wallace        6.85     9.07  LAL  BOS*     -5.27    -1        9746_BOS_2010
    9  T. Allen    R. Allen    Davis       Rondo       Wallace       39.61     8.44  LAL  BOS*     34.14     6        9227_BOS_2010
   10  R. Allen    Perkins     Pierce      Rondo       Wallace       54.58     6.07  LAL  BOS*     39.56     5        9986_BOS_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   11  R. Allen    Davis       Perkins     Pierce      Rondo         12.78     5.27  LAL  BOS*      0.05     0        1802_BOS_2010
   12  T. Allen    R. Allen    Garnett     Perkins     Rondo        -41.37     4.26  LAL  BOS*    -45.04    -4        1299_BOS_2010
   13  R. Allen    Perkins     Pierce      Rondo       Williams      -7.16     3.82  LAL  BOS*    -12.55    -1       18178_BOS_2010
   14  T. Allen    R. Allen    Davis       Garnett     Robinson      46.52     3.80  LAL  BOS*     37.89     3       65563_BOS_2010
   15  Davis       Pierce      Rondo       Wallace     Robinson       8.85     3.28  LAL  BOS*     14.62     1       75272_BOS_2010
   16  R. Allen    Davis       Pierce      Wallace     Robinson      93.93     2.83  LAL  BOS*     84.71     5       74250_BOS_2010
   17  R. Allen    Davis       Garnett     Pierce      Robinson       4.94     2.83  LAL  BOS*      0.00     0       66074_BOS_2010
   18  T. Allen    Garnett     Pierce      Rondo       Wallace       -3.78     2.62  LAL  BOS*    -18.33    -1        9745_BOS_2010
   19  R. Allen    Garnett     Pierce      Wallace     Robinson     -11.48     2.48  LAL  BOS*    -19.33    -1       74258_BOS_2010
   20  T. Allen    Davis       Garnett     Pierce      Robinson     -71.55     1.93  LAL  BOS*    -74.48    -3       66073_BOS_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   21  Davis       Pierce      Rondo       Wallace     Finley       -70.82     1.93  LAL  BOS*    -74.48    -3      140808_BOS_2010
   22  R. Allen    Garnett     Perkins     Pierce      Robinson     -15.55     1.90  LAL  BOS*    -25.26    -1       66322_BOS_2010
   23  T. Allen    R. Allen    Garnett     Rondo       Wallace       33.04     1.67  LAL  BOS*     28.80     1        9235_BOS_2010
   24  T. Allen    Davis       Garnett     Pierce      Rondo        -21.83     1.62  LAL  BOS*    -29.69    -1        1561_BOS_2010
   25  T. Allen    R. Allen    Perkins     Rondo       Wallace      121.10     1.57  LAL  BOS*    122.55     4        9475_BOS_2010
   26  T. Allen    R. Allen    Davis       Perkins     Rondo        -65.83     1.32  LAL  BOS*    -72.91    -2        1291_BOS_2010
   27  R. Allen    Perkins     Rondo       Wallace     Robinson     126.85     1.13  LAL  BOS*    127.06     3       75010_BOS_2010
   28  T. Allen    R. Allen    Garnett     Perkins     Robinson    -167.79     0.82  LAL  BOS*   -176.33    -3       65811_BOS_2010
   29  T. Allen    Davis       Perkins     Pierce      Rondo       -184.93     0.77  LAL  BOS*   -187.83    -3        1801_BOS_2010
   30  R. Allen    Garnett     Pierce      Rondo       Robinson     202.41     0.48  LAL  BOS*    200.00     2       67090_BOS_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   31  T. Allen    R. Allen    Perkins     Wallace     Robinson       8.54     0.40  LAL  BOS*      0.00     0       73987_BOS_2010
   32  T. Allen    Perkins     Pierce      Rondo       Williams    -353.23     0.39  LAL  BOS*   -366.10    -3       18177_BOS_2010
   33  R. Allen    Pierce      Rondo       Wallace     Robinson       2.78     0.31  LAL  BOS*      0.00     0       75266_BOS_2010
   34  T. Allen    R. Allen    Garnett     Pierce      Rondo       -154.00     0.29  LAL  BOS*   -162.71    -1        1555_BOS_2010
   35  Garnett     Pierce      Rondo       Wallace     Robinson     804.59     0.12  LAL  BOS*    811.27     2       75280_BOS_2010
   36  T. Allen    Daniels     Davis       Rondo       Wallace        8.12     0.11  LAL  BOS*      0.00     0        9229_BOS_2010
                                TEAM WEIGHTED AVERAGE BY MINUTES      8.56   240.00                 0.40     2

end of file

 

LA LAKERS

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

    1  Artest      Bryant      Bynum       Fisher      Gasol          8.02    74.27  BOS  LAL*     -2.58    -4         109_LAL_2010
    2  Artest      Bryant      Fisher      Gasol       Odom          21.86    43.06  BOS  LAL*     11.15    10         613_LAL_2010
    3  Brown       Bryant      Farmar      Gasol       Odom         -88.09    10.92  BOS  LAL*    -87.86   -20         598_LAL_2010
    4  Bryant      Bynum       Fisher      Gasol       Walton        15.47    10.23  BOS  LAL*      0.03     0        4204_LAL_2010
    5  Brown       Bryant      Fisher      Gasol       Odom          20.68     9.61  BOS  LAL*     14.99     3         614_LAL_2010
    6  Artest      Bryant      Bynum       Gasol       Vujacic       13.18     7.51  BOS  LAL*      6.41     1        2125_LAL_2010
    7  Artest      Brown       Bynum       Farmar      Odom          -1.63     7.30  BOS  LAL*      6.55     1         539_LAL_2010
    8  Artest      Bryant      Bynum       Fisher      Odom          81.95     6.92  BOS  LAL*     69.39    10         557_LAL_2010
    9  Artest      Bryant      Gasol       Odom        Vujacic      -68.39     6.71  BOS  LAL*    -78.65   -11        2629_LAL_2010
   10  Bryant      Bynum       Farmar      Odom        Vujacic      -40.19     6.47  BOS  LAL*    -37.11    -5        2588_LAL_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   11  Artest      Brown       Fisher      Gasol       Odom           3.68     6.19  BOS  LAL*     -0.06     0         611_LAL_2010
   12  Bryant      Fisher      Gasol       Odom        Walton        63.32     5.07  BOS  LAL*     47.29     5        4708_LAL_2010
   13  Artest      Bryant      Farmar      Gasol       Odom          39.64     5.03  BOS  LAL*     38.26     4         597_LAL_2010
   14  Artest      Bynum       Farmar      Odom        Vujacic        0.22     4.23  BOS  LAL*     11.29     1        2585_LAL_2010
   15  Bryant      Farmar      Gasol       Odom        Vujacic      -68.53     4.15  BOS  LAL*    -69.65    -6        2644_LAL_2010
   16  Brown       Bryant      Bynum       Fisher      Gasol         15.06     3.99  BOS  LAL*     12.04     1         110_LAL_2010
   17  Artest      Brown       Farmar      Gasol       Odom           8.07     3.88  BOS  LAL*     12.29     1         595_LAL_2010
   18  Artest      Brown       Bynum       Fisher      Gasol         30.27     3.84  BOS  LAL*     25.00     2         107_LAL_2010
   19  Brown       Bryant      Bynum       Farmar      Gasol        -47.26     2.90  BOS  LAL*    -49.66    -3          94_LAL_2010
   20  Brown       Bynum       Farmar      Gasol       Walton       -58.88     2.79  BOS  LAL*    -51.55    -3        4186_LAL
_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   21  Artest      Brown       Bynum       Farmar      Gasol        -31.86     2.52  BOS  LAL*    -38.15    -2          91_LAL_2010
   22  Bryant      Bynum       Fisher      Odom        Walton        29.79     2.42  BOS  LAL*     19.86     1        4652_LAL_2010
   23  Farmar      Gasol       Odom        Vujacic     Walton        53.58     1.82  BOS  LAL*     52.84     2        6736_LAL_2010
   24  Brown       Bynum       Farmar      Odom        Walton       -10.37     1.43  BOS  LAL*      0.00     0        4634_LAL_2010
   25  Brown       Bryant      Bynum       Farmar      Odom         180.91     1.30  BOS  LAL*    184.62     5         542_LAL_2010
   26  Brown       Bynum       Fisher      Gasol       Vujacic     -125.49     1.13  BOS  LAL*   -127.06    -3        2154_LAL_2010
   27  Brown       Farmar      Gasol       Odom        Walton       192.74     0.98  BOS  LAL*    194.92     4        4690_LAL_2010
   28  Bryant      Farmar      Gasol       Odom        Walton       186.53     0.77  BOS  LAL*    187.83     3        4692_LAL_2010
   29  Bryant      Farmar      Fisher      Gasol       Odom        -165.50     0.55  BOS  LAL*   -174.55    -2         628_LAL_2010
   30  Artest      Bryant      Bynum       Farmar      Gasol         -5.72     0.46  BOS  LAL*      0.00     0          93_LAL_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   31  Artest      Brown       Bryant      Fisher      Gasol        360.62     0.39  BOS  LAL*    366.10     3         103_LAL_2010
   32  Artest      Bryant      Fisher      Gasol       Vujacic      181.33     0.29  BOS  LAL*    162.71     1        2149_LAL_2010
   33  Artest      Brown       Bryant      Gasol       Vujacic     -317.08     0.29  BOS  LAL*   -331.03    -2        2119_LAL_2010
   34  Bryant      Bynum       Farmar      Fisher      Gasol       -195.21     0.23  BOS  LAL*   -204.26    -1         124_LAL_2010
   35  Brown       Bryant      Bynum       Odom        Vujacic       13.96     0.19  BOS  LAL*      0.00     0        2574_LAL_2010
   36  Bryant      Fisher      Gasol       Odom        Vujacic      719.96     0.14  BOS  LAL*    702.44     2        2660_LAL_2010
   37  Brown       Farmar      Fisher      Gasol       Odom          -0.06     0.01  BOS  LAL*      0.00     0         626_LAL_2010
                                TEAM WEIGHTED AVERAGE BY MINUTES      6.67   240.00                -0.40    -2

June 13, 2010

World Cup Predictions for June 14

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 2:37 pm

I will post predicted outcomes for each game the day before it is played. These are based on feeding in scores from the last 3 years.

Netherlands 2 Denmark 1

Japan 1 Cameroon 1

Italy 1 Paraguay 1.

June 11, 2010

Lakers Problem: The Backup in the Backcourt

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 5:07 pm

So far the key to the NBA finals is the pitiful play of the Laker backcourt. Our Adjusted +/- Ratings through 4 games and Impact (Impact measures how a player changes chance of his team winning on a -100 to +100 scale for the Lakers backcourt follow:

  1. Brown -18 points -74 Impact
  2. Farmar -27 points -80 Impact
  3. Vujajic -50 points -100 Impact.
  4. Fisher has done great +16 points +12 Impact.

For the Celtics Sheed with +32 Points and +48 Impact and Ray Allen with +15 Points and +55 Impact have keyed the Celtic success.

 

One fact  summarizes the key to the series: With Ray Allen and Fisher in for 123 minutes the Lakers are +23 points but with Ray in and Fisher out the Lakers are -29 points in 31 minutes!!!

Another way to look at it. With Vujajic, Brown and Farmar out the Lakers are +28 points in 107  min and in 85 minutes with at least one of these guys in the Celtics  are +24 points.

Luke Walton should play more: In 18 minutes with Luke on the court the Lakers are +14 points.

June 7, 2010

Rasheed Wallace:Unsung Hero!!!

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 7:18 am

I have a lot of other work to get to today so let’s use the WINVAL Adjusted +/- system Jeff Sagarin is co-developer) to see which players have keyed the outcome of this series to date.

  1. For the Celtics Ray Allen has a +16 adjusted +/- and Rasheed Wallace has an amazing Adjusted +/- of +26. Nate Robinson has played well off the bench (+11).
  2. For the Lakers Kobe has an Adjusted +/- of 0, Odom has played poorly (-20), and Farmar  (-36) and Vujajic (-48) have really keyed the Lakers.

So the Lakers bench must step it up. In particular, Odom was the key guy in the Suns and Jazz series, and the Lakers need much more out of him to win this series.

Also major props to the Celtics coaches. Their adjustments neutralized LeBron’s drives, Orlando’s 3′s and Kobe.  Nobody else in the league has figured out how to do these things.

Matchups

In past series (Jazz and Suns)  the Gasol Odom combo has been great. So far, however, the Celtics are +11 points in 28 minutes against this duo. Rasheed has been a key against the Bynum Gasol duo. In 14 minutes with Rasheed in against Gasol and Bynum the Celtics are +10 points and the rest of the time the Celtics are -19 points in 46 minutes. This shows how key Sheed has been.

June 2, 2010

NBA Finals Pick

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 5:34 pm

Usually we like to use all the data from the season to make predictions, but given the amazing Celtics performance in the playoffs as compared to their pedrestian regular season I am only going to use the last two series to estimate the relative abilities of the Celtics and Lakers. During the Jazz and Suns series the Lakers played 13.1 points better than average (after adjusting for strength of opposition. The Celtics played an amazing 14.9 points better than average against the Cavs and Magic. Using an assumption that the Celtics are 1.8 points better than the Lakers we have run the series 5000 times and here are our probabilities.

  • Celtics in 4 9%
  • Celtics in 5 20%
  • Celtics in 6 16%
  • Celtics in 7 14%
  • Lakers in 4 4%
  • Lakers in 5 7%
  • Lakers in 6 14%
  • Lakers in 7 16%.

So we estimate the Celtics have a 59% chance of winning the series.

Key Playoff performers

Here are key Adjusted +/- Ratings and Impact Ratings (based on how chance of winning game changes) for Lakers and Celtics during the playoffs.

  • Ray Allen +14 , +44% Impact.
  • Rondo +12, +29% Impact
  • Pierce +10 +33% Impact
  • FInley An amazing +12 and +66% Impact
  • Kobe +11, +37% Impact
  • Bynum -5, -22%; definitely the Laker’s Achilles Heel.
  • Gasol +5 +11% Impact

Ray Allen has had a great year and gotten no credit. Everyone says Rondo is their key and he is great, but show Ray Allen some love!

« Newer Posts

Powered by WordPress