June 21, 2010

USA World Cup Advancement odds

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 7:12 am

Here are the relevant probabilities for USA advancing to round of 16;

  • Chance USA beats Algeria 55%
  • Chance USA ties Algeria 25%
  • Chance USA loses to Algeria 20%
  • Chance England beats Slovenia 49%
  • Chance England ties Slovenia 28%
  • Chance England loses to Slovenia 23%

CHANCE USA ADVANCES 68%

June 20, 2010

World Cup Picks June 21

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:12 pm

PORTUGAL 1 NORTH KOREA 1

CHILE 1 SWITZERLAND 1

SPAIN 2 HONDURAS 0

June 19, 2010

World Cup Picks June 20

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 5:49 pm

PARAGUAY 2 SLOVAKIA 0

ITALY 2 NEW ZEALAND 1

BRAZIL 3 IVORY COAST 1

World Cup Picks June 19

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:54 am

Sorry this is late but I was traveling yesterday.

NETHERLANDS 2 JAPAN 0

GHANA 2 AUSTRALIA 1

CAMEROON 1 DENMARK 1

June 18, 2010

Final Thoughts on the Finals

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:02 am

Congratulations to the Lakers for winning a great hard fought series. Both teams left it all on the floor.  Despite the thoughts  of other commentators I think Perkins out really hurt the Celtics. The key to the Lakers success (as usual) was the Gasol Odom duo. Actually in this series the Artest Gasol Odom trio was +33 points in 110 minutes. With Perkins in against this trio Celtics were even in 24 minutes. Here is a summary of how lineups performed.

Laker Lineups 2, 5, and 18 (all with Artest, Gasol and Odom) won the series. Give Phil Jackson lots of credit: Lineups 4 and 12 killed Lakers and they saw only 3 minutes of PT during games 6 and 7!

Celtics

1  R. Allen    Garnett     Perkins     Pierce      Rondo         13.54    95.75  LAL  BOS*      4.01     8        1810_BOS_2010
    2  T. Allen    R. Allen    Davis       Wallace     Robinson       6.70    17.92  LAL  BOS*      0.03     0       73739_BOS_2010
    3  R. Allen    Davis       Garnett     Pierce      Rondo         -1.81    12.52  LAL  BOS*    -15.35    -4        1562_BOS_2010
    4  T. Allen    Davis       Pierce      Wallace     Robinson      -4.77    11.28  LAL  BOS*      0.00     0       74249_BOS_2010
    5  T. Allen    Garnett     Perkins     Pierce      Rondo          2.55    10.75  LAL  BOS*     -8.94    -2        1809_BOS_2010
    6  T. Allen    Davis       Pierce      Rondo       Wallace        1.55    10.59  LAL  BOS*     -4.54    -1        9737_BOS_2010
    7  R. Allen    Davis       Pierce      Rondo       Wallace       -6.81     9.69  LAL  BOS*    -14.95    -3        9738_BOS_2010
    8  R. Allen    Garnett     Pierce      Rondo       Wallace        6.85     9.07  LAL  BOS*     -5.27    -1        9746_BOS_2010
    9  T. Allen    R. Allen    Davis       Rondo       Wallace       39.61     8.44  LAL  BOS*     34.14     6        9227_BOS_2010
   10  R. Allen    Perkins     Pierce      Rondo       Wallace       54.58     6.07  LAL  BOS*     39.56     5        9986_BOS_2010
Lakers

1  Artest      Bryant      Bynum       Fisher      Gasol          4.47    93.22  BOS  LAL*     -5.66   -11         109_LAL_2010
    2  Artest      Bryant      Fisher      Gasol       Odom          25.23    61.83  BOS  LAL*     15.53    20         613_LAL_2010
    3  Artest      Brown       Bryant      Gasol       Odom          15.41    14.30  BOS  LAL*     13.42     4         583_LAL_2010
    4  Brown       Bryant      Farmar      Gasol       Odom         -67.49    14.00  BOS  LAL*    -65.11   -19         598_LAL_2010
    5  Artest      Bryant      Farmar      Gasol       Odom          39.48    11.91  BOS  LAL*     36.30     9         597_LAL_2010
    6  Bryant      Bynum       Farmar      Odom        Vujacic        0.40    11.86  BOS  LAL*      4.02     1        2588_LAL_2010
    7  Bryant      Bynum       Fisher      Gasol       Walton        15.31    10.23  BOS  LAL*      0.03     0        4204_LAL_2010
    8  Brown       Bryant      Fisher      Gasol       Odom          20.32     9.61  BOS  LAL*     14.99     3         614_LAL_2010
    9  Artest      Bryant      Bynum       Fisher      Odom          47.01     8.04  BOS  LAL*     35.77     6         557_LAL_2010
   10  Artest      Bryant      Bynum       Gasol       Vujacic       12.69     7.51  BOS  LAL*      6.41     1        2125_LAL_2010

                                                                    RATING  MINUTES               SIMPLE     ±        LINEUP CODE#

   11  Artest      Brown       Bynum       Farmar      Odom          -2.18     7.30  BOS  LAL*      6.55     1         539_LAL_2010
   12  Artest      Bryant      Gasol       Odom        Vujacic      -68.62     6.71  BOS  LAL*    -78.65   -11        2629_LAL_2010
   13  Artest      Brown       Bryant      Bynum       Gasol         36.37     6.25  BOS  LAL*     30.72     4          79_LAL_2010
   14  Artest      Brown       Fisher      Gasol       Odom           3.21     6.19  BOS  LAL*     -0.06     0         611_LAL_2010
   15  Artest      Bynum       Farmar      Odom        Vujacic       14.12     6.05  BOS  LAL*     23.79     3        2585_LAL_2010
   16  Bryant      Fisher      Gasol       Odom        Walton        60.60     5.30  BOS  LAL*     45.24     5        4708_LAL_2010
   17  Bryant      Farmar      Gasol       Odom        Vujacic      -58.76     4.80  BOS  LAL*    -60.22    -6        2644_LAL_2010
   18  Artest      Farmar      Gasol       Odom        Vujacic      102.41     4.80  BOS  LAL*     99.99    10        2641_LAL_2010

Other interesting facts:

  • Robinson +7 and Wallace +2 were only Celtics who played major minutes with a positive raw +/-.
  • Lakers were +40 points with Artest on court and +35 points with Odom on the court. With Bryant in Lakers were only +10 points.  With  Bynum in Celtics were +2 points. Also Lakers were +9 points when Walton went in for Artest. Rest of time Artest was out the Lakers were down 25 points!

June 17, 2010

World Cup Forecasts June 18

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:54 pm

GERMANY 2 SERBIA 1

USA 1 SLOVENIA 1

ENGLAND 2 ALGERIA 0

June 16, 2010

Lakers Celtics Game 7

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:12 pm

Throughout the playoffs the trio of Ray Allen, Pierce and Rondo on the court  killed Eastern Conference foes. The Lakers appear to have found an answer to this trio: Kobe, Odom and Fisher with Gasol or Bynum and Artest or Walton is +14 points against this Celtic trio. The Lakers have been burned (-25 points in 33 minutes) when Fisher Artest and Walton are all out. Rest of time Lakers are +45 points in 255 minutes. I guess I now pick the Lakers, but nothing would surprise me at this point.

World Cup Predictions

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:52 pm

Had to work today so I missed Switzerland’s great upset. I calculate that the Swiss had around a 3% chance to win that game. Here are predicted scores for June 17.

  1. Argentina 1 South Korea 0
  2. Nigeria 1 Greece 0
  3. France 1 Mexico 1

June 15, 2010

World Cup Forecasts for June 16

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 4:28 pm

Uruguay 2 South Africa 1

Spain 2 Switzerland 0

Chile 1 Honduras 1

June 14, 2010

World Cup ratings

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 5:45 pm

Here are my World Cup Ratings after today’s games. Some non world cup teams are listed: ignore them . For example Brazil is 1.15 goals better than average on offense and .52 goals better than average on defense. I will try and update probabilities of teams winning when I have a chance.

Team off def Rating
BRAZIL 1.151640814 -0.52166 1.673305
SPAIN 0.876226677 -0.56697 1.443193
ARGENTINA 0.428774127 -0.83854 1.267316
ENGLAND 0.486377182 -0.60723 1.093606
NETHERLANDS 0.489649348 -0.53015 1.019799
GERMANY 0.632446741 -0.35025 0.982698
FRANCE 0.078577677 -0.46157 0.54015
EGYPT 0.804536167 0.344149 0.460387
URUGUAY 0.22510419 -0.20071 0.425818
CZECH 0.271282743 -0.07385 0.345132
SLOVENIA -0.0599713 -0.39383 0.333862
ITALY 0.071331233 -0.25012 0.321449
USA 0.418915723 0.103443 0.315473
NIGERIA -0.24214148 -0.51482 0.272683
MEXICO 0.157659519 -0.1086 0.266262
SOUTH KOREA -0.13746383 -0.39622 0.258759
TUNISIA 0.318028638 0.069462 0.248567
PARAGUAY -0.14438044 -0.39071 0.246331
TURKEY 0.108970356 -0.10511 0.214078
Ghana 0.322717024 0.121214 0.201503
RUSSIA 0.445817084 0.273906 0.171911
ECUADOR -0.10837644 -0.23546 0.127086
ISRAEL 0.075812776 0.021552 0.054261
JAPAN -0.15399723 -0.1933 0.0393
SERBIA -0.06816933 -0.0189 -0.04926
IRELAND -0.29734353 -0.23838 -0.05896
CHILE -0.08238735 -0.01777 -0.06461
PORTUGAL 0.31346877 0.403594 -0.09013
SWITZERLAND -0.00369202 0.128474 -0.13217
CAMEROON -0.41213691 -0.22618 -0.18595
NORWAY -0.23837794 -0.02898 -0.20939
DENMARK -0.07410479 0.148841 -0.22295
HONDURAS -0.23019204 0.068826 -0.29902
IVORY COAST 0.228933197 0.53816 -0.30923
S AFRICA -0.10253264 0.209946 -0.31248
SWEDEN -0.35465194 -0.04054 -0.31412
AUSTRALIA -0.16188335 0.218581 -0.38046
VENEZUELA -0.07006385 0.410912 -0.48098
POLAND -0.45381375 0.04299 -0.4968
NORTH Korea -0.59613873 -0.09546 -0.50068
Algeria -0.33511069 0.169601 -0.50471
GREECE -0.35078652 0.206789 -0.55758
N IRELAND -0.40839048 0.176439 -0.58483
SLOVAKIA -0.21800561 0.477616 -0.69562
CHINA -0.87935406 -0.10858 -0.77078
BELGIUM -0.51594638 0.638961 -1.15491
VENEZUELA -0.70213337 1.168899 -1.87103
NEW ZEALAND -0.50472399 1.571571 -2.07629
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