April 18, 2010

Advice for the Jazz

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:06 am

The Jazz have lost two key frontcourt players:AK47 and Okur for the Nuggets series. Is all lost? The Jazz have played 3 points better than average with these guys out. But there are some really good combinations that have worked well with AK47 and Okur out. All numbers are how well a combination plays per 48 minutes after adjusting for strength of opponents faced.

  1. Playing  three guards (Korver, Matthews and Williams) has played 7 points better than average.
  2. The frontcourts of  Boozer Millsap and Miles (+7) Miles Millsap and Fesenko (+13) and Boozer Fesenko and Miles (+26) have played well.
  3. When Williams is out (he is the league’s best point guard!) Miles, Boozer, Matthews, Millsap with Price or Gaines has played well (more than 20 points better than average).

 

April 17, 2010

4th Quarter Heroes

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 6:54 pm

Below we list the players who we think were  for the 2009-2010 regular season (on a per minute basis) the best in the 4th quarter. LeBron’s rating of 16.4, for example, means that after adjusting for the 9 other players on the court, in his 4th quarter time on court  LeBron made the Cavs 16.4 points better per 48 minute than an average NBA player. Note the appearance of Dirk, Kidd and Haywood on the list partially explains the Mavs great record in close games.

 

Player Rating
Birdman 16.7
LeBron 16.4
Dirk 14.4
Wade 14.3
Dwight Howard 14.1
Durant 13.9
Vinsanity 12.9
Frye 12.4
Deron Williams 11.9
AK47 11.8
Nene 11.5
Haywood 11.3
Kidd 11
Paul 10.3
Ray Allen 10.2
Kobe 9.7
Duncan 9.7

April 15, 2010

Do the Blazers have a Chance to Set the Suns?

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:12 pm

The Blazers have had so many injuries but they have hung in there and earned the 6th seed in the tough Western Conference. Without Roy do they have a chance to beat the red hot Suns? It will be tough but let’s break down what we know about how the Blazers have played without Roy.

     Since the Camby trade the Blazers have played 420 minutes without Roy and have played 4 points (per 48 minutes) worse than average. If you eliminate minutes where Pendergraph played, the Blazers played 5 points better than average. All numbers below represent level of play per 48 minutes (adjusted for strength of opponents.)

  •    When Miller, Aldridge, and Rudy are on the court the Blazers are great (122 minutes +27 points better than average). Even more amazing when Batum joins these 3 the Blazers play 41 points better than average.
  • With Miller on the court in 172 minutes the Blazers are fine (17 points better than average). The problem is when Miller is out the Blazers play 18 points worse than average.
  • So the Blazers really need to experiment with what works with Miller out. So far the limited data we have indicates that in 15 minutes Rudy, Aldridge, Bayless and Batum with Howard or Camby has been good (+22 level).

We will keep a close eye on this series and as the games progress we will give you more info on what works for the Blazers!

Blazers in the 4th Quarter

The Blazers bigs (Aldridge, Howard, Camby and Pendergraph) all have played poorly in the 4th quarter. Aldridge’s Adjusted +/- for 4th quarter of -9 is the lesser of four evils. Webster (+5), Miller (+7) and  Bayless (+5) have played well in the 4th quarter.

Player Ratings

Here are Adjusted +/- Point ratings for key Blazers

Miller +14,  Webster +8, Aldridge -6, Howard -16 (he kills offense with -24 rating),  Bayless +6, Batum +3, Camby +2, Rudy +1, Cunningham -4,  Pendergraph -19. From this info it looks like maybe best bet is to play Camby when Amare is in and go small rest of the time.

Suns and Blazers Head to Head

Due to trades and injuries not much t o go on  but

Blake, Aldridge, Miller Webster and Howard was +14 points in 13 minutes against Suns. Maybe putting Rudy in for Blake here will work?

The Jazz Can be Better

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 6:43 pm

The Jazz have played 5 points better than average for the season. Injuries to Boozer and AK47, however, caused the Jazz to lose home court and face the tough Denver Nuggets. Hopefully, AK47 and Boozer will be ok for the Denver series.  We believe the Jazz can be a much better team if they understand which lineups work and which don’t.

Let’s start with a breakdown of the most frequently played frontcourts. We will assume Williams is in because he is the key to this team (one of the league’s two best point guards this year, along with Andre Miller). All references to level mean how well (per 48 minutes) the combo plays after adjusting for strength of opponents.

Frontcourt Combos

  1. Boozer Millsap AK47 331 minutes +15 level
  2. Boozer Millsap Miles 245 min +9 level
  3. Boozer AK47 Okur 505 +1 level. This trio is overutilized and should play less.
  4. Boozer Miles Okur 370 min +5 level
  5. Millsap AK47 Okur 158 min +23 level. Play them more!!!!!
  6. Millsap Miles Okur 125 min +12 level.
  7. AK47 Fesenko Millsap 29 minutes, +29 rating Fesenko should play more.
  8. Fesenko, Boozer, with Miles or 3 guards 121 minutes +25 rating.

I think this shows the Jazz could play much better.

Backcourt

With Williams in most combos work well.  Interestingly Williams as the only guard has done well (+21 rating in 108 minutes).  The three guard combo of Williams Korver and Mathews has done well (+11 rating in 213 minutes). With Williams out the Jazz do ok with Matthews and AK47 in ( +5 level in 183 minutes). Lineups 5C and 6C below rest Williams well.

Jazz in the 4th Quarter

AK47, Williams and Korver are outstanding in the 4th quarter.

Jazz and Nuggets Head to Head

After adjusting for strength of players faced, the Jazz played at an only average level against Nuggets.. Most of their poor play was due to Okur’s problems. With Okur in against Nuggets , Jazz played 11 points per game worse than average in 113 minutes and were down 38 points. With Okur out in 79 minutes the Jazz were +22 points and played 16 points bettert han average. Playing the non Okur frontcourts more should help.

Also Fesenko and Korver did well in their limited time against Denver.

 Regular Season Lineups

Here is how the Jazz most frequently used lineups played per 48 minutes during the regular season. I would more use of boldfaced lineups. 5C and 6C have played well without Williams.

    For example, lineup 3A played 11 points better than average (after adjusting for strength of opponents) in 205 minutes.
UTA      11.49 (    5.95    8.01    2.06   23.57    1.17    6.01)  204.68 minutes   61 appearances     3 A      9.15       39 $
Boozer        Matthews      Miles         Okur          Williams      26.05 years      10881_UTA_2010

UTA       6.08 (    8.28   10.43    2.15   16.69    1.24    5.64)  148.01 minutes   88 appearances     4 A      2.27        7 $
Boozer        Matthews      Miles         Millsap       Williams      24.90 years       9857_UTA_2010

UTA     -18.23 (    7.92    5.03   -2.89   17.63    1.24    6.21)  141.75 minutes   44 appearances     5 A    -19.30      -57 $
Boozer        Kirilenko     Matthews      Okur          Williams      27.26 years      10385_UTA_2010

UTA      14.20 (   10.25    7.45   -2.79   10.75    1.30    5.82)  109.59 minutes   68 appearances     8 A     14.45       33 $
Boozer        Kirilenko     Matthews      Millsap       Williams      26.12 years       9361_UTA_2010

UTA       9.66 (   12.05   11.27   -0.77    7.42    1.35    6.09)  109.47 minutes   69 appearances     9 A     11.84       27 $
Boozer        Korver        Matthews      Millsap       Williams      26.10 years       9377_UTA_2010

UTA      -3.46 (    2.44   -3.43   -5.87    4.30    0.33    4.27)   82.99 minutes   49 appearances    11 A      4.63        8 $
Korver        Miles         Millsap       Okur          Price         26.72 years       7712_UTA_2010

 

UTA      14.32 (   16.43   11.35   -5.08   19.00    2.13    6.07)   60.58 minutes   37 appearances     2 B     11.89       15 $
Boozer        Kirilenko     Korver        Millsap       Williams      27.23 years       9265_UTA_2010

UTA      16.28 (   15.60   10.93   -4.67   32.98    2.41    5.66)   54.29 minutes   30 appearances     4 B     18.57       21 $
Korver        Miles         Millsap       Okur          Williams      26.52 years      11808_UTA_2010

UTA      20.30 (   14.46   14.33   -0.13   24.94    2.07    6.00)   52.29 minutes   35 appearances     5 B     16.52       18 $
Boozer        Korver        Miles         Millsap       Williams      26.02 years       9761_UTA_2010

      UTA      29.56 (   11.38    4.05   -7.33   18.79    1.65    5.51)   42.04 minutes   31 appearances     2 C     33.11       29 $
Kirilenko     Matthews      Millsap       Okur          Williams      26.62 years      11408_UTA_2010

UTA       2.88 (    9.42    7.03   -2.38   24.73    1.59    5.34)   38.54 minutes   25 appearances     3 C      2.49        2 $
Matthews      Miles         Millsap       Okur          Williams      25.40 years      11904_UTA_2010

UTA      28.14 (   -4.88   -3.92    0.96  -11.98   -0.84    2.90)   35.93 minutes   22 appearances     5 C     32.07       24 $
Boozer        Matthews      Miles         Millsap       Price         25.11 years       5761_UTA_2010

UTA       8.32 (   -1.78  -10.30   -8.53   -9.88   -0.43    3.32)   35.55 minutes   19 appearances     6 C      9.45        7 $
Kirilenko     Matthews      Millsap       Okur          Price         26.82 years       7312_UTA_2010

UTA      25.64 (   14.10    8.92   -5.18   25.88    2.06    6.56)   33.99 minutes   20 appearances     7 C     26.83       19 $
Boozer        Kirilenko     Korver        Okur          Williams      28.38 years      10289_UTA_2010

How the Bulls can Compete with the Cavs

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:25 am

For the season the Cavs are 6 points better than an average NBA team and the Bulls are 2 points worse. Can the Bulls compete with the Cavs? It will be hard, but the Bulls can certainly play much better if they carefully select their lineups. All data below excludes minutes where Salmons or Thomas (both traded) were on the court. All data is adjusted for strength of opponent faced and is per 48 minutes.

  • The frontcourt of Miller, Deng and  Gibson is great. They play 10 points better than average. The frontcourt of Noah, Deng and Gibson plays more often but is only 2 points better than average.
  • Deng, Miller and Hinrich on the court makes the Bulls good: 7 points better than average. Rest of time Bulls are 7 points worse than average.
  • When Murray is at the point (Rose and Hinrich out) the Bulls play poorly: 23 points worse than average.
  • With Rose out the Hinrich Pargo backcourt is good: 132 minutes Bulls play 4 points better than average. Rest of time Rose is out the Bulls play 14 points worse than average.
  • When Deng is out Gibson, Hinrich and Miler in is ok (plays at average). But rest of time Deng is out the Bulls play 14 points worse than average. Lineup 3B below (Gibson        Hinrich       Johnson       Miller        Pargo  )        does a great job of resting Deng , Noah and Rose!
  • With Hinrich out Rose Gibson and Deng in keeps the Bulls afloat (3 points better than average). Rest of time Hinrich is out the Bulls  play 11 points worse than average.
  • The Bulls are not a good 4th quarter team. Deng (+7 Adjusted +/-) and Pargo (+5 Adjusted +/-) are good in 4th but Noah (-11 Adjusted +/-) has been a poor 4th quarter performer.
  • Warrick plays ok with Noah (-3 level) but when Noah is out and Warrick in the Bulls play very poorly (14 points worse than average)

Bulls and Cavs head to head

In the minutes where Salmons and Thomas were not playing the Bulls played 7 points worse than average against the Cavs (remember LeBron missed the last game). But things are not that bad. When Warrick or  Murray was in the Bulls played 26 points worse than average against Cavs but rest of time Bulls played 8 points better than average.

Here are the Bulls best lineups based on the regular season: Note 3A just swaps Miller in for Noah (copared to 1A) and is much better.  CHI       2.34 (    1.16   -1.46   -2.62   -0.55    0.12    5.50)  451.69 minutes  171 appearances     1 A      0.64        6 $
Deng          Gibson        Hinrich       Noah          Rose          24.86 years       2582_CHI_2010

CHI      11.72 (    7.12    2.58   -4.54   11.49    1.03    3.95)  290.77 minutes  125 appearances     3 A      9.57       58 $
Deng          Gibson        Hinrich       Miller        Rose          26.64 years       2326_CHI_2010

CHI       4.25 (    0.66    0.94    0.28    8.92    0.33    5.52)   88.63 minutes   58 appearances     6 A      2.17        4 $
Deng          Hinrich       Miller        Noah          Rose          26.70 years       2834_CHI_2010

CHI      11.24 (   -8.05   -8.63   -0.57  -21.94   -1.43    2.32)   59.55 minutes   22 appearances     3 B      2.42        3 $
Gibson        Hinrich       Johnson       Miller        Pargo         28.06 years       1428_CHI_2010

Final NBA Team Ratings

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 6:58 am

I hope to post playoff  advice for several teams later, but my colleague Jeff Sagarin who runs our numbers is sick, so it may be a while. Here are final team ratings. I gave more weight to more recent games. Note the Wolves were the league’s worst. The Magic played 7.7 points better than average. They were 2.8 points better than average on offense and 4.9 points better than average on defense,

Full Season Ratings

team rat off def
Orlando Magic 7.694046 2.808201 -4.88584
Cleveland Cavaliers 6.034992 1.986003 -4.04899
Utah Jazz 5.571069 3.833718 -1.73735
San Antonio Spurs 5.344389 0.471541 -4.87285
Phoenix Suns 5.284646 9.381763 4.097118
Atlanta Hawks 4.276113 0.959611 -3.3165
Los Angeles Lakers 4.229948 0.06166 -4.16829
Denver Nuggets 3.848207 5.152603 1.304397
Oklahoma City Thunder 3.68092 1.21913 -2.46179
Portland Trail Blazers 3.209716 -3.17722 -6.38693
Dallas Mavericks 2.653999 1.248689 -1.40531
Boston Celtics 2.622729 -1.28506 -3.90779
Miami Heat 2.336993 -4.10953 -6.44653
Milwaukee Bucks 1.774583 -2.82176 -4.59634
Charlotte Bobcats 1.468009 -4.81882 -6.28683
Houston Rockets -0.42829 2.163791 2.592078
Chicago Bulls -1.21276 -2.07499 -0.86223
Memphis Grizzlies -1.50317 1.536277 3.039452
Toronto Raptors -2.06068 3.78602 5.846704
New Orleans Hornets -2.33346 -0.49392 1.839535
Indiana Pacers -2.37315 1.312371 3.685523
Golden State Warriors -3.16784 8.841255 12.00909
Philadelphia 76ers -4.05236 -2.29673 1.755632
New York Knickerbockers -4.28422 2.091382 6.3756
Sacramento Kings -4.45135 -1.34963 3.101717
Washington Wizards -4.90556 -4.47665 0.428909
Detroit Pistons -5.25142 -5.94727 -0.69585
Los Angeles Clippers -6.63614 -5.11172 1.52442
New Jersey Nets -8.3254 -7.02585 1.299549
Minnesota Timberwolves -9.04456 -1.86487 7.179696

Here are ratings based on games since all-star break. The Magic have clearly been the best since All Star break. So why are the Lakers and Cavs 2-1 to win title and Magic 8-1?? Note the Spurs are much better than their record indicates.

team rat off def
Orlando Magic 10.74067 4.393028 -6.34764
Phoenix Suns 8.878813 8.517735 -0.36108
San Antonio Spurs 6.440378 0.126138 -6.31424
Utah Jazz 5.601226 4.299238 -1.30199
Cleveland Cavaliers 4.871279 2.168859 -2.70242
Atlanta Hawks 4.561472 0.568888 -3.99258
Portland Trail Blazers 4.002811 -4.4207 -8.42351
Dallas Mavericks 3.987775 1.718833 -2.26894
Oklahoma City Thunder 3.459474 4.013309 0.553835
Miami Heat 3.434381 -5.53583 -8.97021
Milwaukee Bucks 3.330678 -3.91376 -7.24444
Denver Nuggets 2.584358 3.281281 0.696923
Charlotte Bobcats 1.489767 -5.74765 -7.23742
Indiana Pacers 1.389482 3.824239 2.434757
Boston Celtics 0.88423 -1.22992 -2.11415
Los Angeles Lakers 0.645075 -3.28652 -3.93159
Chicago Bulls -0.04664 0.061883 0.108526
Houston Rockets -1.37828 4.217908 5.596187
Memphis Grizzlies -2.37218 0.785989 3.158169
Golden State Warriors -3.20894 10.0063 13.21524
New Orleans Hornets -3.60672 -0.72069 2.88603
New Jersey Nets -4.52804 -3.14271 1.38533
Detroit Pistons -4.76316 -3.23262 1.530547
Toronto Raptors -5.01955 1.152203 6.171752
Washington Wizards -5.14582 -7.10196 -1.95614
Philadelphia 76ers -5.47944 -1.78306 3.696377
New York Knickerbockers -5.70529 2.344482 8.049776
Sacramento Kings -6.06261 -5.11921 0.943406
Los Angeles Clippers -8.95895 -4.63875 4.320202
Minnesota Timberwolves -10.0262 -1.60694 8.419294

April 13, 2010

Can the Thunder beat the Lakers?

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:15 am

The Thunder will be playing the Lakers in the first round of the NBA playoffs. Does the Thunder have a chance to be competitive? We think so.

By the way, we are available for hire during the playoffs. If interested give us a call at 812-322-4270.

    For the season the Thunder played 3 points better than an average NBA team. After adjusting for the strength of opposition faced they also played 3 points better than average  against the Lakers. My colleague Jeff Sagarin and I believe the Thunder can play much better than this. Here are some key points based on the Thunder’s performance this year. All numbers below are per 48 minutes and adjusted for strength of opponent(unless otherwise indicated)

  • When Green, Westbrook, and KD are in the Thunder are good (5 points better than average.) But with KD and Westbrook in and Green out the Thunder are fantastic 16 points better than average,
  • Resting KD well is important to The Thunder’s success. When KD is out the Thunder play 15 points worse than average. But when Collison, Westbrook, Green, and Harden are in and Sefelosha is out the Thunder play 16 points better than average (in 52 minutes).
  • Resting Westbrook well is also important. When Westbrook is out and KD , Collison,  Harden, Ibaka and Maynor are in the Thunder play 23 points better than average in 153 minutes. The rest of the time Westbrook is out the  Thunder played 9 points worse than average.
  • Maynor, Harden, and Collison should be playing more and Green and Sefelosha shouls be playing less. Green has an Adjusted +/- of -4, Sefelosha -8, Maynor -1, Collison +3 and Harden +3. This means for example, that after adjusting for the other 9 players on the court, our best estimate is that Collison, for example, makes the Thunder play 3 points better  er 48 minutes than an average NBA player and Green makes Thunder play 4 points worse.
  • In the 4th quarter KD is great and Collison and Harden are average. The other Thunder regulars play very poorly in the 4th quarter. I would always close with COllison, Harden and Durant as my frontcourt.

Here are the Thunder’s best lineups during the regular season. For example, lineup 4A played 14 points better than average per 48 min (it played 153 minutes.

       OKC      14.44 (   20.89   16.74   -4.15   35.74    2.24    9.41)  153.09 minutes  124 appearances     4 A     13.17       42 $
Collison      Durant        Green         Harden        Westbrook     23.05 years       8222_OKC_2010

OKC      22.99 (   14.57    0.77  -13.80   24.38    1.34   11.10)  151.94 minutes  103 appearances     5 A     27.17       86 $
Collison      Durant        Harden        Ibaka         Maynor        22.72 years     131126_OKC_2010

OKC      28.12 (    9.98    8.45   -1.54   -2.12    0.04   10.83)   69.09 minutes   63 appearances     2 B     25.71       37 $
Durant        Green         Harden        Sefolosha     Westbrook     22.35 years       9244_OKC_2010

OKC      24.21 (   10.88    1.78   -9.10   42.13    1.29   10.83)   67.14 minutes   36 appearances     3 B     23.59       33 $
Collison      Durant        Krstic        Sefolosha     Westbrook     24.73 years       9286_OKC_2010

        ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE      +/-
OKC      28.80 (    5.58   -3.20   -8.78   23.23    0.80   12.70)   44.47 minutes   31 appearances     1 C     31.30       29 $
Collison      Durant        Harden        Ollie         Thomas        27.91 years       2582_OKC_2010

OKC      24.32 (    7.97    5.69   -2.29    3.51    0.07   11.52)   38.47 minutes   25 appearances     2 C     24.95       20 $
Collison      Durant        Green         Ibaka         Westbrook     23.04 years       8238_OKC_2010

OKC      21.50 (   21.20   10.93  -10.27   34.41    2.24    9.37)   36.78 minutes   33 appearances     3 C     23.49       18 $
Collison      Durant        Green         Harden        Maynor        23.34 years     131102_OKC_2010

OKC      26.90 (    4.13   -3.51   -7.64   13.05   -0.22   11.09)   27.37 minutes   17 appearances     6 C     26.30       15 $
Durant        Green         Krstic        Sefolosha     Maynor        23.85 years     132172_OKC_2010

These lineups should play more often!!!!!!!!!!

Head to Head:Thunder vs. Lakers

We only have 197 minutes of data but even this limited data makes it very clear what goes on when the Thunder play the Lakers:

  • When the Thunder have their starting lineup in or have KD and Westbrook both out they lost by 46 points in 86 minutes. The rest of the time the Thunder was +40 points in 111 minutes.
  • When KD was in and Collison and Harden were both out the Thunder lost by 16 points in 97 minutes. The rest of time KD was in the Thunder were +38 points in 48 minutes.

There you have it. If the Thunder adjust their lineup decisions in accordance with the previously discussed data, we think this series can be a great one. Otherwise we predict Thunder lose in 5.

April 6, 2010

Should Duke have Missed the Free Throw?

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 2:02 pm

As you all know, with Duke up by 2, Coach K told Zubek to miss the 2nd  free throw. Was this a good idea?  My earlier post forgot chance of Zubek missing free throw even if he tried to make it (thanks to Michael for this point). Let’s assume Zubek is 50%-50% to make free throw if he tries. The results stay pretty similar.

Let 

Pobounds = chance Butler hits a 3 after a made free throw and

 PmissFT = chance Butler hits a 3 after a missed Free throw.

Butler’s chance of winning if  Duke misses free throw  intentionally is PmissFT and Butler’s chance of winning  if Zubek tries to make Free Throw is .5(.5Pobounds )+.5*PMissFt

(if you believe Butler has 50% chance of triumphing in OT) Therefore Duke should have missed the FT if  .5(.5Pobounds )+.5*PMissFT>PMissFT

orPobounds/PMissFT>=2.

My friend and I believe PMissFT = .10 and Pobounds = .20. Therefore decision looks like a wash. So when in doubt I would take the option that does not leave me open to second guessing (not missing FT). Clearly, this is a close call and you can defend either choice.

Of course, I am assuming Butler rebounds the missed free throw. .

April 1, 2010

The NBA in March: A Review

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 1:11 pm

The playoffs are just around the corner, so let’s review the NBA in March. Based on the scores of all March games, the table below shows how well each team has played. For example, the Magic played 10.7 points better than average. They played 3.6 points better than average on offense and 7.1 points better than average on defense. The Warriors were the league’s best offensive and worst defensive team!. The Clippers, surprisingly were the league’s worst in March. A Cavs-Lakers series is no sure thing!

team rat off def
Orlando Magic 10.70118 3.573068 -7.12811
Phoenix Suns 9.455939 11.48323 2.027294
San Antonio Spurs 8.195372 0.547092 -7.64828
Portland Trail Blazers 7.613325 -2.44746 -10.0608
Utah Jazz 7.570454 6.488115 -1.08234
Cleveland Cavaliers 6.611312 0.351918 -6.25939
Atlanta Hawks 5.527806 3.334948 -2.19286
Miami Heat 5.175892 -4.28438 -9.46027
Oklahoma City Thunder 4.277959 3.680058 -0.5979
Charlotte Bobcats 3.080123 -5.93905 -9.01918
Denver Nuggets 2.830696 3.733519 0.902823
Boston Celtics 2.798453 -2.10251 -4.90096
Los Angeles Lakers 2.496868 0.527883 -1.96899
Milwaukee Bucks 2.428843 -3.38458 -5.81342
Indiana Pacers 1.457002 2.250694 0.793692
Memphis Grizzlies -0.80408 2.043104 2.847186
Dallas Mavericks -1.0619 1.051075 2.11297
Houston Rockets -3.26529 0.703534 3.968828
New York Knickerbockers -3.65432 0.924473 4.578794
Golden State Warriors -3.70048 13.97404 17.67452
Sacramento Kings -3.8512 -4.70247 -0.85128
New Orleans Hornets -4.55631 -1.72384 2.83247
New Jersey Nets -5.6281 -5.01196 0.616134
Toronto Raptors -5.69312 -1.6876 4.005517
Philadelphia 76ers -5.81353 -4.20172 1.611807
Chicago Bulls -5.85615 -2.90129 2.95486
Washington Wizards -7.41287 -10.4605 -3.04765
Minnesota Timberwolves -8.95096 1.196829 10.14779
Detroit Pistons -9.37568 -1.8737 7.50198
Los Angeles Clippers -10.5972 -5.14249 5.454748

Let’s  break down the keys to each team’s performance. Again we use the lens of Adjusted +/-. For example, in March Jamaal Crawford was great: a +16 points rating, +11 offense and -5 defense. This means our best estimate is that when he was in he added 16 points more per 48 minutes to the Hawks ability than an average NBA player. He did this by contributing 11 points better than average on offense and 5 points better than average on defense (negative numbers are good on defense, bad on offense).

 

Atl

Jamal Crawford (+16) was great. Pachulia (+5) and Smith (+14) were great off bench. Joe Johnson (+12 defense) killed Hawks on defense.

Bos

No big surprises here. Tony Allen (+7 points) was solid off bench but KG (-1 points) showed no signs of improvement.

Charlotte

Diaw (+10 points), Felton (+7) and Jackson (+11) were great. Henderson (-15 points rating) had a subpar month.

Chicago

Newcomer Acie Law (+5 points) played well but newcomers Murray (-5) and Warrick (-6) really hurt the Bulls.

Cleveland

Big Z (-18 offense) and Powe (-14 offense) killed the Cavs offense. Parker (-8 defense) was a great defender. LeBron (+12 rating) was great but slipped a bit, perhaps due to his ankle injury. Varaejo (+12 points rating) continues to be the Cavs’ unsung hero. Jamison (-5 points rating) has not yet helped much.

Dallas

The bright spot was that Beaubois (-1 points rating) improved enough to join the rotation. Dirk (+2 points) had by far his worst month of the year. Butler (+11 defense) hurt the Mavs on defense. Dampier (+20 defense) killed the Mavs. Stevenson (-24 points rating) also did not do well. Najera was great (+7 points) as a backup center and power forward.

Denver

Our prayers go out to George Karl. Get well soon!. The Nuggets struggled without George and Kenyon Martin. Petro (- 8 points), Allen (-14 points) and Graham (-11 points) replaced Martin, and this explains most of the Nuggets’ struggles.

Detroit

Stuckey (+2 points) had his worst month; not surprising given the health scare. Brown (-15) and Villaneuva(-18) killed the Pistons. Jerebko (+5 rating, -6 defense rating) was great.

Golden State

Rookie  Curry (+3 points) continued his solid play. Maggette (+13 defense rating) killed the Warriors on defense.

 

 Houston

Kevin Martin played at an average level. Why doesn’t David Andersen (+10 points rating, -9 defense) play more? Jared Jeffries (-26 defense rating) was a beast on defense while the much hyped Jordan Hill was mediocre (-5 points rating).

Indiana

The Pacers had a solid month and played much better than average. They were led by Watson (+11), Granger (+12), Solomon Jones (+8), and Ford (+7). McRoberts (-19) and Dahntay Jones (-12) killed the Pacers.

Clippers

A real horror show in March. Blake (-23 points, +19 defense) killed the Clippers. The underrated Craig Smith (-18 defense) was fantastic.

Lakers

Not a great month for the defending champs. Brown, Farmar, and Powell (all -12 points ratings) all played poorly off the bench. Mbenga (+18 points rating) was great off bench. Odom and Gasol (-6 points) had subpar months. Before his injury Bynum (+6 points) was playing great.

Memphis

Gasol (-11 defense) and Thabeet (-13 defense) were stalwart defenders. Conley (-6 defense) also defended well. Rudy Gay (+9 offense) keyed the scoring. Mayo (-7 points +8 defense) and Williams (-11 points) hurt the Griz.  Young (-6 points) also played poorly.

Miami

Wade (+18 points) is probably as good as LeBron but gets 10% of the credit. O’Neal (+6), Richardson (+5),  and Wright (+7) have ensured that this is no longer a one man show. At point guard Arroyo (+4 points) had his best month while Chalmers (-15 offense rating) played poorly.

 Milwaukee

Ivey (+24 points) was great in limited time. Since being traded to the Bucks Salmons (+5  point rating) has been excellent.

 Minn

The Wolves poor play is mostly on Flynn (+13 defense) Hollins (+15 defense), and Pavolich(-26 points rating). Pecherov (+12 point rating for season) should play more. Darko (+1 point rating) has been fine.

 Nets

The whole team has improved. Roberts, Dooling, Lopez, Boone, Hayes, Lee and Harris all played at around average levels. A big improvement! If the Nets sign a top free agent they could really go places!

Hornets

Chris Paul (-1 points rating) has not been as good since returning to action. Aaron Gray (+6 points rating) has been a pleasant surprise.

Knicks

Chandler (+8 points) was great in March. TMac (+1 points rating) is no longer a star. Douglas (-1 points rating) played ok at guard.Rodriguez (+14 defense rating) really hurt the Knicks on defense.

Thunder

KD (+24 points) was the league’s best player in March. Collison (+7 points) is a solid, underrated player. Ibaka (-14 points) really hurt the Thunder in March.

Magic

Anderson (-15 points rating) played poorly. Carter (+12 points, -9 defense) played his best ball of the season. Nelson (+4 points) and Gortat (+5 points) also played better. Dwight Howard (+11 points for season) continued his great play. Rashard Lewis (-7 points for season) needs to improve for the Magic to return to the finals.

76ers

Speights (-17 points), Dalembert (-9 points), Williams (-12 points) and Carney (-14 points) killed the 76ers in March. Brand (+4 points) and Holiday (+2 points) played well.

 Suns

The Suns shone brightly in March. The ageless Steve Nash (+15 offense rating) and Frye (+12 offense rating) keyed the Suns in March. Amare, JR, Lopez and Dudley also played better than an average NBA player.

Portland

Batum (+12 offense) and Bayless (+11 offense) have been coming on strong. The underrated Andre Miller is one of he league’s best players this year (+16 points in March). Juwan Howard (-28 offense) grinds the offense to a halt. Roy(+14 offense) has been great on offense but needs defensive improvement (+8 points). I would not want to play these guys in the playoffs!

Kings

Sean May (+16 points rating) had a great month. Evans (+2 points rating) continued his solid play.

Spurs

 Bogans (-11 points)  has hurt the Spurs. Bonner (+11 points, -11 defense) has really helped the defense. Manu (+10 offense) has keyed scoring. Hairston (-10 point rating) is probably not ready for the playoffs. Mason (-8 points rating) had a disappointing March.

Raptors

Bellinelli (+7 point rating) should play more if physically able. DeRozan (-16 point rating, +11 defense) has killed them. Jack (-7 points), Turkoglu (-9 points) and Weems (-9 points) have also hurt them.

Jazz

 Miles (+8 points) and Williams (+12 points) have keyed the Jazz’ surge. In our opinion Williams and Andre Miller have been the league’s two best point guards.

Wizards

Nick Young (+8 point rating) was the only Wizard who stood out. Boykins (-23 point rating, +17 defense rating) has really hurt them.

 

 

 

 

 

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