December 12, 2009

What’s the Answer for the 76ers?

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:30 am

The 76ers are mired in a long losing streak. What can they do to stop the bleeding? First of all in the 106 min Iverson has played, Philly has played 2 points better (per 48 minutes) than an average NBA team. Since Philly has for the season played 3 points worse than average, Iverson seems to be helping. Looking at the season as a whole here is where Philly loses games:

·       When Dalembert, Iguodala (AIG for short), and Brand are in (mostly with Young) the 76ers lose by 4 points a game in 358 min.

·       When Smith or Ivey are in Philly loses by 15 points per game in 343 minutes. The rest of the season Philly plays 2 points better than average

 Also when AIG and Brand are in without Dalembert Philly plays at +7 points and with AIG and Dalembert in without Brand Philly plays at +5 points. So it seems that a real big lineup does not work. Also Kapono has played very well in his limited minutes and probably deserves more time. The trio of Kapono, Green and AIG has played 9 points better than average in 190 minutes

 

Here are some of Philly’s good lineups. For example, first lineup has played 33 min and has played 27 points better than average. Of course, Williams and Speights are out so some of these lineups cannot be used at present.

 

PHI      26.65 (   -7.17    3.49   10.66  -21.01   -0.66    8.40)   33.48 minutes   19 appearances     4 A     21.50       15 $

Brand         Iguodala      Speights      Williams      Young         24.77 years       7233_PHI_2009

 

PHI       7.43 (  -12.05   -2.23    9.82  -39.22   -1.22    5.39)   32.22 minutes   10 appearances     5 A    -10.43       -7 $

Dalembert     Holiday       Iguodala      Smith         Young         23.90 years       4712_PHI_2009

 

PHI      22.00 (    0.37    0.01   -0.35  -50.65   -0.60    6.92)   30.57 minutes   19 appearances     6 A     21.98       14 $

Brand         Carney        Iguodala      Williams      Young         25.44 years       6213_PHI_2009

 

 

        ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE      

PHI      27.06 (    1.52   11.61   10.09   16.72    0.35    5.88)   16.42 minutes    9 appearances     1 B      8.77        3 $

Brand         Green         Iguodala      Kapono        Young         27.12 years       4433_PHI_2009

 

 

PHI      22.16 (    6.03    8.66    2.62   22.69    0.68    4.62)   15.94 minutes   12 appearances     3 B     18.06        6 $
Dalembert     Green         Iguodala      Kapono        Young         26.69 years       4440_PHI_2009
 
PHI      24.52 (  -29.14  -12.49   16.65  -85.27   -2.55   10.35)   15.63 minutes    8 appearances     4 B     30.70       10 $

Green         Ivey          Kapono        Smith         Speights      26.32 years      

December 10, 2009

Kevin Durant: What a Difference a Year Makes

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 7:03 pm

In previous posts we have pointed out how Kevin Durant, despite impressive box score numbers, actually hurt the performance of the Thunder during the 2008-2009 season. The good news is that this season KD has been fantastic. His Adjusted +/- of 25.3 points ranks second only to Dirk Nowitzki. By our best estimate KD is 13.8 points better per game than an average offensive player and most amazingly 11.5 points better than an average defensive player.

Below we see how the 2008-2009 Thunder played with Durant In or out paired with various players. For example, with KD and Westbrook in  the Thunder were 6.1 points worse than average. For all minutes with KD  out and Westbrook in the Thunder were only 1.1 points worse than average, a 5 point improvement. Looking at these numbers it is hard to make a case that KD helped his team last year.  I made this assertion earlier this fall and I totally stand by it. His Adjusted +/- of -7.8 points last year was one of the league’s worst.

2008-2009 KD

   
     

With

Durant in

Durant out

Durant

-8.5

dnp

Westbrook

-6.1

-1.1

Green

-8.0

1.1

Krstic

-9.1

5.7

Collison

-8.6

-2.0

watson

-10.7

-6.0

Sefolosha

-11.6

9.3

Rose

-5.2

-5.1

Atkins

-13.1

-16.9

Weaver

-7.1

0.0

Petro

-11.9

-10.7

Livingston

-25.6

-2.8

     

KD: New and Improved

                The table below documents the great strides KD has made in helping his team win.

You can see that in every comparison shown KD improves the Thunder’s performance by at least 10 points per game. This is the sign of a great player. Overall when KD is out the Thunder play a horrible 15.7 points worse than average.

2009-2010 KD

   
 

Durant in

Durant out

Durant

5.3

dnp

Green

4.3

-19.5

Krstic

5.3

-56.1

Sefolosha

3.0

-28.3

Westbrook

6.1

-6.0

Wilks

-22.8

-45.4

Collison

12.7

-17.3

Harden

13.4

-15.3

Livingston

35.8

-40.9

Thomas

0.1

-18.1

Ollie

5.8

-16.5

White

29.9

-3.7

 

   
     
     
     
     
     
     
     

December 8, 2009

New NFL Ratings

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 2:20 pm

Here are NFL ratings through December 7. The Saints maintain the #1 spot due to their offense that is 14.67 points better than average. Surprising ly the Colts have the best defense, 5.27 points better than average.

 

Team

offense

defense

total

rank off

rank def

 overall

Cardinals

2.28

-1.71

3.99

11

10

10

Falcons

2.09

0.65

1.44

12

20

17

Ravens

1.91

-4.37

6.28

14

5

5

Bills

-5.26

-0.71

-4.54

28

12

25

Panthers

-3.48

-0.41

-3.07

23

15

20

Bears

-2.70

1.29

-3.98

22

21

23

Bengals

-0.85

-4.21

3.36

17

6

13

Browns

-8.15

3.31

-11.46

30

27

30

Cowboys

1.01

-2.83

3.83

16

8

11

Broncos

-1.14

-4.74

3.60

19

3

12

Lions

-4.65

7.43

-12.08

26

32

31

Packers

4.19

-0.60

4.80

7

13

8

Texans

2.37

1.36

1.01

10

23

19

Colts

5.26

-5.27

10.53

5

1

3

Jaguars

-3.59

1.88

-5.47

24

25

26

Chiefs

-4.47

5.80

-10.27

25

31

29

Dolphins

3.28

1.34

1.94

9

22

16

Vikings

7.04

-0.59

7.63

2

14

4

Patriots

6.69

-4.40

11.09

3

4

2

Saints

14.67

0.56

14.11

1

18

1

Giants

3.92

1.62

2.29

8

24

14

Jets

-1.06

-5.16

4.10

18

2

9

Raiders

-9.54

0.61

-10.15

31

19

28

Eagles

5.00

-1.26

6.25

6

11

6

Steelers

1.95

-0.07

2.02

13

16

15

Rams

-10.26

3.60

-13.86

32

28

32

Chargers

6.56

0.42

6.14

4

17

7

49ers

-1.80

-2.87

1.07

21

7

18

Seahawks

-1.61

2.32

-3.93

20

26

22

Buccaneers

-5.25

3.93

-9.18

27

29

27

Titans

1.65

5.04

-3.40

15

30

21

Redskins

-6.04

-1.98

-4.06

29

9

24

 

Here is each  team’s schedule strength.  We see the Dolphin’s have played the toughest schedule (3.44 points harder than average). The Vikings have played the league’s easiest schedule.

 

strength

rank

Cardinals

-1.26

22

Falcons

1.44

8

Ravens

1.61

6

Bills

0.48

15

Panthers

0.84

9

Bears

-0.90

21

Bengals

-1.93

29

Browns

1.90

5

Cowboys

-1.67

27

Broncos

0.43

16

Lions

0.59

13

Packers

-2.74

31

Texans

0.09

17

Colts

-0.31

18

Jaguars

-1.47

25

Chiefs

0.56

14

Dolphins

3.44

1

Vikings

-2.87

32

Patriots

2.58

3

Saints

-1.64

26

Giants

0.79

11

Jets

0.83

10

Raiders

1.52

7

Eagles

-1.41

23

Steelers

-1.75

28

Rams

0.72

12

Chargers

-2.19

30

49ers

-0.43

19

Seahawks

-1.43

24

Buccaneers

2.58

2

Titans

2.49

4

Redskins

-0.89

20

 

Here are projected final standings for each team. So the playoffs look as follows:

NFC

Saints, Cardinals, Vikings, Cowboys, Eagles and Packers.

AFC

Colts, Patriots, Chargers, Bengals, Broncos, and Ravens.

Team

W

L

Cardinals

11

5

Falcons

8

8

Ravens

9

7

Bills

5

11

Panthers

6

10

Bears

6

10

Bengals

11

5

Browns

3

13

Cowboys

10

6

Broncos

10

6

Lions

3

13

Packers

10

6

Texans

7

9

Colts

15

1

Jaguars

8

8

Chiefs

4

12

Dolphins

8

8

Vikings

13

3

Patriots

10

6

Saints

15

1

Giants

9

7

Jets

8

8

Raiders

5

11

Eagles

10

6

Steelers

8

8

Rams

2

14

Chargers

12

4

49ers

8

8

Seahawks

6

10

Buccaneers

2

14

Titans

7

9

Redskins

5

11

 

December 6, 2009

Musings on the Pacers, Nuggets, and Blazers

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 4:46 pm

Let’s try and answer the following three interesting questions:

  1. Why are the Pacers playing so badly?
  2. Should Melo have been Western Conference Player of the Month?
  3. How badly will Greg Oden’s tragic injury hurt the Blazers?

Why are the Pacers so Bad?

In the last 2 weeks the Pacers have a 1-7 record. By looking at how the Pacers play with different players on the court it is easy to determine the major causes of the problem. After adjusting for who they play with and against we find that during the last two weeks Hibbert, Murphy and Hansborough have  played more than 20 points worse than average (per 48 minutes). I estimate that during their playing time these players have cost the Pacers nearly 30 points per game over the last 2 weeks. So what to do? Either play these guys less minutes or figure out what they are doing wrong.

Melo should not have been Player of the Month!

   Melo is averaging over 30 points a game, so he must be having a great season. Not so fast! After adjusting for who Melo plays with and against we find that per minute played Nene and Andersen have contributed more to the Nuggets success than Melo. In what follows we tell you how well the Nuggets have played (per 48 minutes) for various frontcourt combos.

  • Martin Andersen 36 min +8
  • Melo and Andersen 25 min +6
  • Melo Martin Andersen 148 min +9
  • Melo Martin and Nene 410 min +5
  • Melo Nene and Andersen 60 min +19
  • Nene and Andersen 96 min +20
  • Nene and Melo 50 min -17 pts
  • Nene and Martin 12 min +21
  • Melo Martin 13 min -45

I think these numbers make it clear that Nene and Andersen really key the Nuggets success. In particular with Andersen and Nene in (Martin and Melo) out the Nuggets play 20 points better than average.

How will the Blazers Fare without Oden?

   Again we are so sorry to see Greg Oden suffer another season ending knee injury. The Blazers should be ok without him, however. The key to the Blazers success are the minutes with Blake, Miller and Roy on the court. Whether Oden is in or out the Blazers play 21 points better than average with these three guys in. The rest of the time the Blazers play only one point better than average.

December 5, 2009

A look at the League’s Top Rookies

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 11:59 am

Let’s take a look at the league’s top rookies. (see the chart below). Brandon Jennings has tailed off lately. After adjusting for strength of the guys he plays with and against, we estimate that Jennings is around 2.6 points better than an average NBA player. Note that in last 8 games, however, he has played at a well below average level. Maybe he is hitting the rookie wall or teams have figured him out. Time will tell. On a pure points basis, Thornton of the Hornets and Thabeet of Memphis have been the best (although in limited minutes).  To see the effectiveness  of Thornton note that when Thornton and Chris Paul are both out the Hornets play 12 points worse than average while if Thornton is in when Paul is out the Hornets play only 3 points  worse than average. Collison has also done a great job for the Hornets.  Using a version of Value of a Replacement Player borrowed from baseball (see Chapter 33 of my Mathletics book for details) we determined a “fair” salary for each rookie based on his points rating and minutes per game. We find, for example, that if Ty Lawson of Denver   continues to play at this present level of +6.3 and keeps the same playing time (22 minutes per game) he would generate 7.7 million dollars worth of value.  A blank in the salary column means that so far the player has played at below replacement level. For example, so far Flynn of MIN has been a large disappointment and has been overrated by most pundits.

 

Player

Team

Season Pts

Last 8 games Pts

Salary(MILLIONS)

THORNTON

NO

12.9

10.8

10.22

JENNINGS

MIL

2.6

-4.5

8.57

EVANS

SAC

2.2

3.6

8.41

LAWSON

DEN

6.3

5.9

7.70

THABEET

MEM

18.2

25.2

6.89

COLLISON

NO

3.7

3.7

6.08

HARDEN

OKC

3.6

3.7

5.74

JERETKO

DET

-0.5

-3.5

4.07

BLAIR

SAN

-1.5

2.6

2.05

YOUNG

MEM

-2.2

-1.5

1.62

FLYNN

MIN

-10.3

-10.3

-

CASSPI

SAC

-6.9

-6.5

-

GIBSON

CHI

-6.2

-6.3

-

 

December 4, 2009

Who’s Best in the 4th Quarter?

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 1:52 pm

Who are the NBA’s top performing players in the 4th quarter? To answer this question we have developed 4th quarter Adjusted +/- ratings. These ratings look at how a player helped his team in the 4th quarter, after adjusting for who he played with and against. For example, after adjusting for who Frye played with and against we find he has made the Suns 35 points better (per 48 minutes) than an average NBA player. Note the Pistons are amazing in the 4th quarter. They have 4 of the league’s best 4th quarter players.

 

Player

Team

Rating

FRYE

PHO

35

DIRK

DAL

34

BIBBY

ATL

33

B WALLACE

DET

25

LOWRY

HOU

24

DALEMBERT

PHI

24

NENE

DEN

23

VILLENEUVA

DET

23

M GASOL

MEM

23

CRAWFORD

ATL

22

DURANT

OKC

21

BONNER

SAN

21

ANDERSEN

HOU

19

LANDRY

HOU

19

NASH

PHO

19

JERETKO

DET

18

GOMES

MIN

18

STUCKEY

DET

17

PAUL

NO

17

R ALLEN

BOS

16

S JACKSON

CHA

16

HARRINGTON

NYK

16

KOBE

LAL

15

WADE

MIA

15

JEFFERSON

SAN

15

HOWARD

ORL

14

DENG

CHI

12

ARIZA

HOU

12

 

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