November 12, 2009

What’s Wrong with the Jazz?

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 11:08 am

The Jazz are 3-5, which is probably a worse record than most fans expected. After adjusting for strength of players facing Jazz, however, they have played 2 points better than average. The team, however, has many surprising strengths and weaknesses. Here are some key points.

  1. AK 47 and Millsap have been fantastic, especially on defense.
  2. Boozer, Brewer and Price have killed Jazz on defense.
  3. Williams has keyed offense
  4. Fesenko has played great and deserves more minutes. When he is in Jazz play 16 points better than average.
  5. In their limited time Maynor and Koufos have killed Jazz. The team plays 30 points (per 48 minutes) worse than average when either is in.

Some other interesting points (all numbers are per 48 minutes)

  • AK47, Williams, Okur and Milsap in is great-Jazz play 40 points better than average with these 4 in.
  • Williams and AK47 in does well 9 points better than average.
  • Millsap, Williams and AK47 in i s great, 25 points better than average.
  • Price  in without AK47 is a disaster,  Team Plays 43 points worse than average. But  Price with Ak47 is 14 points better than average.

Best lineups are

  1. Brewer, AK47, Millsap, Okur and Williams 49 points better than average so far.
  2. Boozer Ak47 Millsap Price and Williams 41 points better than average.
  3. Starting lineup has played 1 point worse than average.

What’s wrong with the Knicks?

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:22 am

The Knicks are off to a 1-8 start and are only 1-5 at home. After adjusting for strength of opponents, the Knicks have played 9 points worse than average. Only Charlotte and Minnesota have played this badly. Let’s try and diagnose the Knicks problems and hopefully propose  a possible solution.

  After adjusting for strength of opponents when Duhon, Chandler and Lee are in the Knicks play 11 points worse than average; the rest of the time they play only 5 points worse than average.

    Larry Hughes has been great; when Hughes is in the Knicks have played 2 points worse than average (all numbers are per 48 minutes); when Hughes is out the Knicks are an abysmal 18 points worse than average.

   So does anything work? Well Hughes, Gallo and Harrington in is great: in 78 minutes this trio plays 19 points better than average . The rest of the time the Knicks play 14 points worse than average. This makes sense because all three are good outside shooters and the Knick offense seems to require a lot of good outside shooting ability (which Chandler, Jeffries, and Lee do not have). So what would I do?

When Nate returns (he will help a lot) I would start Hughes, Gallo, Nate and Harrington (5th probably Lee). Then try and keep 3 of these guys (excluding Lee)  on court as much as I could and sprinkle in Duhon, Chandler, Jeffries and Douglas. This strategy should lead to some level of respectability.

By the way after adjusting for strength of who you played with and against we find that Gallo totally keys Knicks offense. Hughes keys the defense and Lee really hurts the Knicks defense.

November 11, 2009

NFL Forecasts Nov 11

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:01 am

Based on results through NFL week 9 here are the offense, defense and overall point ratings that best fit the scores of the games. For example, the Colts are 10.98 points better than average (3rd in league). They are 3.2 points better than average on offense and 7.78 points better than average on defense (- is good on defense). Using these ratings and the Excel simulation add-in @RISK I simulated the rest of the season 10,000 times and came up with each team’s most likely final record (see below)

Team

offense

defense

total

rank off

rank def

 overall

Cardinals

2.803898

-1.48435

4.28825

14

12

13

Falcons

3.82713

-4.09256

7.91969

8

7

6

Ravens

5.225194

-2.96683

8.19202

6

8

5

Bills

-6.1474

-2.9539

-3.1935

26

9

22

Panthers

-2.49445

1.048206

-3.5427

23

20

23

Bears

0.870441

3.206275

-2.3358

16

27

20

Bengals

1.610784

-5.48032

7.09111

15

4

8

Browns

-10.2463

3.177599

-13.424

29

26

30

Cowboys

5.379931

-2.08651

7.46645

5

10

7

Broncos

-1.67975

-6.68441

5.00466

21

3

11

Lions

-6.67358

7.704749

-14.378

28

32

31

Packers

0.722068

1.894151

-1.1721

18

21

19

Texans

3.667699

0.320498

3.3472

9

17

15

Colts

3.20576

-7.78372

10.9895

11

2

3

Jaguars

-4.25999

3.7082

-7.9682

24

28

25

Chiefs

-6.40864

3.090656

-9.4993

27

25

26

Dolphins

6.533296

0.032953

6.50034

4

15

9

Vikings

6.977749

2.764014

4.21374

3

24

14

Patriots

7.733759

-4.33249

12.0662

2

5

2

Saints

16.90733

-0.31946

17.2268

1

14

1

Giants

3.040208

0.735617

2.30459

12

19

16

Jets

0.036636

-8.4639

8.50053

19

1

4

Raiders

-11.1264

2.087535

-13.214

31

22

29

Eagles

4.137723

-1.50771

5.64543

7

11

10

Steelers

0.762061

-4.10476

4.86682

17

6

12

Rams

-13.1632

7.371257

-20.534

32

31

32

Chargers

3.369355

2.376662

0.99269

10

23

17

49ers

-0.69861

-1.08818

0.38957

20

13

18

Seahawks

-2.22322

0.654922

-2.8781

22

18

21

Buccaneers

-4.27382

5.948807

-10.223

25

29

27

Titans

2.842522

7.071809

-4.2293

13

30

24

Redskins

-10.2583

0.155206

-10.413

30

16

28

 

 

 

Projected Final Regular Season Record

1.       Saints 15-1

2.       Colts 14-2

3.       Vikings 12-4

4.       Bengals 12-4

5.       Cowboys 12-4

6.       Broncos 11-5

7.       Patriots 11-5

8.       Cardinals 11-5

9.       Steelers 11-5

10.   Falcons 10-6

11.   Ravens 10-6

12.   Eagles 10-6

13.   Chargers 9-07

14.   Jets 9-7

15.   Texans 9-7

16.   Giants 9-7

17.   Dolphins 9-7

18.   49ers 8-8

19.   Bears 8-8

20.   Packers 8-8

21.   Seahawks 7-9

22.   Jaguars 6-10

23.   Bills 6-10

24.   Panthers 5-11

25.   Titans 5-11

26.   Raiders 4-12

27.   Redskins 3-13

28.   Chiefs 3-13

29.   Browns 3-13

30.   Lions 2-14

31.   Rams 2-14

32.   Buccaneers 2-14

Packers have played easiest schedule so far and Dolphins the hardest.

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