Comments on: Sebastian Telfair Redux

By: The Best Clipper Team Ever? « The Wages of Wins Journal

The Best Clipper Team Ever? « The Wages of Wins Journal — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 04:37:17 +0000

[...] still has Thornton, R. Davis, and the newly added Sebastian Telfair (and yes, I have a problem with the Telfair adjusted plus-minus story that I am saving for another day) holding the team back. [...]

By: Crow

Crow — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 18:30:28 +0000

Telfair’s individual 1 year Adjusted +/- didn’t save him and likely nothing would after Kahn took over and wanted to rebuild his own way but more time played by successful lineups on Adjusted might have made his positive individual Adjusted more believable to more people and might have increased the trade value of the guys that were moved some.

By: Crow

Crow — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 08:12:42 +0000

Minny had 5 lineups that were +10 or better on Adjusted +/- that were used over 30 minutes.

Telfair and Jefferson were on 4, Foye, Gomes and Miller 3.

What if you put all 5 together? You get their best lineup at +20 per 48 minutes.

Small minute stuff. But seeing this pattern emerge I’d have run that minute total up way higher than 77 minutes. No guarantee it would work in big minutes but sure looks like a better bet than what they tried more. Substitute Love with the other 4 and they were neutral, better than any of the other 5- just 5- lineups used 100+ minutes.

What if Telfair Jefferson Foye Gomes and Miller had been used big minutes and worked well? McHale might have kept his job and Foye and Miller might not have been traded. We’ll never know what might have been because it was used so lightly.

By: Crow

Crow — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 01:41:16 +0000

should be fourth line of above post… tied for Telfair’s “second best” in 08-09.

By: Crow

Crow — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 01:39:42 +0000

The swing in player Adjusted +/- year to year was accompanied by wild swings in raw player pair +/-. Telfair=Jefferson went from very poor and low compared to others in 07-08 to Jefferson’s best and tied for Telfair’s in 08-09. Telfair-McCants went the other way from Telfair’s best to his worst. Coaching has to be part of it I’d guess. Plays matter and whether they are followed or work.

Kevin Love was newly arrived and got assigned a very negative Adjusted +/-. Will that stay that way or will Love without Telfair blossom on Adjusted +/-? As the world turns so do the numbers. At least these.

By: Crow

Crow — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 00:27:08 +0000

Using Adjusted from basketballvalue 4 Wolves saw their Adjusted +/- swing wildly from 07-08 to 08-09: Telfair, McCants, Gomes and Jefferson. Telfair and Hefferson went way up, McCants and Gomes went way down. By 6-10 points. That doesn’t sound all natural and all about th eindividuals by themseleves. I think interactions must be causing pretty serious havoc. I wonder how much different WW’s numbers are after his collinearity adjustments.

How much of all this reflects the impact of the change in the coaching layer instead of the player?

By: Crow

Crow — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 22:43:28 +0000

If he helps his crew make one more shot, make one less turnover and bump up the offensive boards just a bit compared to what they’d do without him that could completely explain his Offensive Adjusted+/-, assuming he is average in his own direct stat impact. Could. Would want to see Adjusted +/- by the Four Factors. Dr. Winston do you produce and use this as well?

By: Brian

Brian — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 23:25:34 +0000

My theory on the Telfair +6 score is that it has to do with Randy Foye. Foye is a bad point guard, but a great shooting guard. When Telfair is in the game, Foye is at the two. Does your data support this theory?

By: Crow

Crow — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 21:38:54 +0000

in first post should be… if you are “sharing” the version of Adjusted +/- that Mark Cuban cited on his blog

By: Crow

Crow — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 21:19:08 +0000

On your scale has he been pretty consistently strong?