Comments on: NBA Rankings Last 3 weeks http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?p=1372 Just another WordPress weblog Sat, 18 May 2013 19:29:54 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7.1 hourly 1 By: lovethoseknicks http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?p=1372&cpage=1#comment-26576 lovethoseknicks Sat, 28 Apr 2012 18:07:09 +0000 http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?p=1372#comment-26576 Is there a formula for converting the point spread of a game into the estimated probability of the team winning? I have been using this: =NORMDIST(0,spread,12,TRUE) This seems to be biased towards giving the underdog a slightly higher chance of winning than actual odds on the games (or the bookmakers are making slightly biased lines - can't be sure). I'm not sure where I got that formula. Is there a formula for converting the point spread of a game into the estimated probability of the team winning?

I have been using this: =NORMDIST(0,spread,12,TRUE)

This seems to be biased towards giving the underdog a slightly higher chance of winning than actual odds on the games (or the bookmakers are making slightly biased lines - can’t be sure). I’m not sure where I got that formula.

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