http://waynewinston.com/wordpress Just another WordPress weblog Tue, 27 Jul 2010 18:56:11 +0000 http://backend.userland.com/rss092 en Yesterday we predicted the Heat to be 66-16 next season. Applying our Adjusted +/- ratings for the Laker's players from last season and using last season's minutes played (adjusted in Blake's case) we get a projected record for the Lakers of 65-17! As you can see below, Blake and Barnes ... http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?p=884 The Heat have pretty much filled out their roster. I assumed that players play the same number of minutes as they did last year and play at the same Adjusted +/- level of performance as last year, I predict 66-16 for the Heat. http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?p=882 I am so sorry Holland lost! Oh well there is always 2014 for USA and Holland. Here are final ratings based on 3 years of scores. I switched to multiplicative ratings, because they fit the data a little better. So Spain is number 1 and they are 60% better than ... http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?p=880 I want Netherlands to win so badly but my model predicts Spain 2 Netherlands 1 in overtime. Spain has 57% chance to win. http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?p=878 Well LeBron, Bosh and wade are on the Heat. Are the Heat a lock to win the NBA title. Let's try and figure out how good this team will be next year. Based on our Adjusted +/- Ratings we project for 2010-2011 (all player ratings are per 48 minutes.) Wade and ... http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?p=875 Chances of winning cup Germany 35.6% Spain 27% Netherlands 24.8% Uruguay 12.6% Semifinal predictions NETHERLANDS 2 URUGUAY 1 NETHERLANDS 61% CHANCE TO ADVANCE GERMANY 1 SPAIN 1 GERMANY WINS ON PENALTY KICKS GERMANY 56% CHANCE OF ADVANCING http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?p=873 What a day for soccer! Dram to equal anything I have seen. Go Netherlands. Here are tomorrow's picks. SPAIN 1 PARAGUAY 0 SPAIN 80% CHANCE TO ADVANCE GERMANY 1 ARGENTINA 1 ARGENTINA ADVANCES ON PENALTY KICKS 56% CHANCE ARGENTINA ADVANCES http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?p=871 URUGUAY 2 GHANA 1 61% CHANCE URUGUAY ADVANCES BRAZIL 2 NETHERLANDS 1 65% CHANCE BRAZIL ADVANCES http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?p=869 Here are my rankings and odds for the Final 8! For example, Brazil is .99 goals better than average on offense, .63 goals better than average on defense and 1.62 goals better than average overall. Brazil has 27% chance to win the World Cup. Rank Team off def Rating Chance 1 BRAZIL 0.99 -0.63 1.62 0.27 2 ARGENTINA 0.72 -0.76 1.49 0.2 3 SPAIN 0.70 -0.63 1.33 0.18 4 GERMANY 0.69 -0.49 1.18 0.12 5 NETHERLANDS 0.46 -0.49 0.96 0.09 7 URUGUAY 0.41 -0.31 0.72 0.08 12 GHANA 0.11 -0.12 0.23 0.03 13 PARAGUAY -0.32 -0.54 0.22 0.03 http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?p=866 PARAGUAY 1 JAPAN 1 PARAGUAY ADVANCES ON PENALTY KICKS PARAGUAY 55% CHANCE OF ADVANCING. SPAIN 2 PORTUGAL 1 SPAIN 78% CHANCE OF ADVANCING. http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?p=864