Yesterday we predicted the Heat to be 66-16 next season. Applying our Adjusted +/- ratings for the Laker’s players from last season and using last season’s minutes played (adjusted in Blake’s case) we get a projected record for the Lakers of 65-17! As you can see below, Blake and Barnes are two great pickups. They are easily superior to Brown and Farmar. The predicted wins is based on the well-known Puthagorean formula that converts points better than average (in this case 10) to games one. Looks like these teams will be well-matched, if they make it to the finals. As the Celtics showed this year, nobody should take a finals trip as a given!

The Heat have pretty much filled out their roster. I assumed that players play the same number of minutes as they did last year and play at the same Adjusted +/- level of performance as last year, I predict 66-16 for the Heat.

I am so sorry Holland lost! Oh well there is always 2014 for USA and Holland. Here are final ratings based on 3 years of scores. I switched to multiplicative ratings, because they fit the data a little better. So Spain is number 1 and they are 60% better than average on offense and give up an amazing 26% as many goals as an average World Cup team. Spain against an average World Cup Team would be favored by 1.73 goals.

I want Netherlands to win so badly but my model predicts Spain 2 Netherlands 1 in overtime. Spain has 57% chance to win.

Well LeBron, Bosh and wade are on the Heat. Are the Heat a lock to win the NBA title. Let’s try and figure out how good this team will be next year. Based on our Adjusted +/- Ratings we project for 2010-2011 (all player ratings are per 48 minutes.)

• Wade and LeBron each play 11 points better than average. Assume 36 minutes each (most guys get hurt a few games)
• Bosh will play 5 points better than average . 36 minutes
• Chalmer 4 points worse than average. 24 minutes
• Beasley 4 points worse than average. 30 minutes
• The key is in remaining 78 minutes how well will rest of roster play. Let’s try out 2 points thru 6 points worse than average.

Here are projected wins:

To me the most likely case is rest of roster plays like Chalmers and  Beasley (-4). Then we project 63-19 record for Heat which is probably a team good enough to win the East and play the Lakers in a great 7 game series.

Chances of winning cup

• Germany 35.6%
• Spain 27%
• Netherlands 24.8%
• Uruguay 12.6%

Semifinal predictions

NETHERLANDS 2 URUGUAY 1 NETHERLANDS 61% CHANCE TO ADVANCE

GERMANY 1 SPAIN 1 GERMANY WINS ON PENALTY KICKS GERMANY 56% CHANCE OF ADVANCING

What a day for soccer! Dram to equal anything I have seen. Go Netherlands. Here are tomorrow’s picks.

SPAIN 1 PARAGUAY 0 SPAIN 80% CHANCE TO ADVANCE

GERMANY 1 ARGENTINA 1 ARGENTINA ADVANCES ON PENALTY KICKS 56% CHANCE ARGENTINA ADVANCES

URUGUAY 2 GHANA 1 61% CHANCE URUGUAY ADVANCES

BRAZIL 2 NETHERLANDS 1 65% CHANCE BRAZIL ADVANCES

Here are my rankings and odds for the Final 8! For example, Brazil is .99 goals better than average on offense, .63 goals better than average on defense and 1.62 goals better than average overall. Brazil has 27% chance to win the World Cup.

PARAGUAY 1 JAPAN 1 PARAGUAY ADVANCES ON PENALTY KICKS PARAGUAY 55% CHANCE OF ADVANCING.

SPAIN 2 PORTUGAL 1 SPAIN 78% CHANCE OF ADVANCING.