Texas football coach Darrell Royal popularized the phrase “Dance with one who brung you.” I guess this means that a coach should stick with the strategy that got you to the NBA playoffs. Unfortunately sometimes the data overwhelmingly indicates that a change in strategy is necessary.

In the 2011 NBA playoffs Dallas cruised to the Western Conference title with Peja Stojovich replacing Dirk and Barea coming off the bench. After three games against the Heat it was clear Peja was being clobbered by the Heat and Barea was performing poorly off the bench. Rick Carlisle had Caridnal replace Dirk and started  Barea. The rest is history as the Mavs stormed back to win the title over the highly favored Heat.

The Grizzlies and Bulls stuck with certain regular season strategies and were rewarded with first round exits.

Memphis had great success during the regular season with Mayo coming in for Tony Allen. Against LAC, however, Mayo was destroyed by Nick Young. In 76 minutes with Young in and Mayo in and Allen out Memphis lost by 47 points. When Mayo was in and Allen and Young were out Memphis was +30 points in 85 minutes.  When Allen was in and Mayo out and Young was in Memphis was up. This would seem to indicate that starting Mayo and having Allen come off the bench would have helped matters. The Grizz destroyed the Clips starting lineup (+47 points in 119 minutes( and was +17 with Mayo in against Clips starting lineup) so this would have appeared to make sense

The Bulls had to deal with the tragic loss of Rose. During the regular season Lucas was a great sub for Rose. With Rose out and Lucas in and Watson out Bulls played 9 ppg better than average. When Watson was in and Rose and Lucas were out Bulls played 2 ppg worse than average. So in the playoffs I would have started Lucas and brought Watson off the bench. Instead Watson got most of the minutes. Not surprisingly when Watson was in  the Bulls played only 1 ppg bettert han average but when Lucas was in and Watson was out  the Bulls were much better 6 ppg better than average.

Usually in the playoffs patterns emerge after 2 or 3 games that repeat themselves later in the series.  The Mavs understood this and were rewarded with a title.

A tip: key to Philly Boston is the way Lavoy Allen has handled KG. Keep an eye on this!

Here are some thoughts on OKC’s win.

1.James Harden is the man! When he was in for129 minutes OKC was +48 points; when he was out -22   points.

2. More amazingly when Harden was in and KD and westbrook were out OKC was +19 points in 20 minutes.

3. Mahinmi should have played more for the Mavs. The Mavs were +11 points with him in and were even +1 with Mahinmi and Harden in the game.

4. West killed the Mavs: Mavs -41 points in 88 minutes with West in. Maybe Roddy B should have played more (12min +12 points)

5. Against Harden we should have seen more of Dirk, Mahinmi, Terry, Carter with Kidd or West 16 minutes +9 points.

6.  West, Dirk, Carter, Wright with Terry or Kidd wrecked the Mavs with Harden in 14 min -21 points.

7. Haywood, Dirk, Kidd Marion and Terry 8 min +7 pts) was also good with Harden in

8. In 54 minutes with KD and Westbrook in and Harden out Mavs were +3 points, so clearly Harden is the straw that stirs the drink.

9. In the 37 minutes Harden was out and West was in the Mavs were -5 points but when Harden was out and West out in 26 minutes theMavs were +27 points!

The Mavs could easily be 2-2 right now, but OKC made the plays and deserve multiple props!

Based on last 3 weeks Spurs rule.

Here they are.

Cleveland is tanking and Philly is fading.

Here are NBA full season ratings.

Here are NBA ratings based on last 3 weeks. If the Cavs are not tanking, you could have fooled me!

Here are NBA ratings with more weight given to more recent games.

Under Wodson, Knicks have been best team!!

Here are season ratings.