April 16, 2014

RPM and Luke Babbit

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 11:54 am

 

 

Luke Babbit has been great in his limited minutes for the Pelicans, but RPM tells us he has played below average. Look at data below

In just about any combination Luke helps a lot, so why is his RPM negative?

Aminu Davis Morrow Roberts Ajinca Aminu Anderson Stiemsma Rivers Babbitt
Babbitt and  other in -2 82m 3 73m dnp 10 97m -6 50m -2 82m dnp 12 37m 12 79m 7 172m
Babbitt out and other in -5 1464m -2 1665m dnp -5 1134m -5 572m -5 1464m 6 589m -10 586m -8 448m dnp
Babbitt in and other out 16 90m 11 98m 7 172m 4 75m 13 122m 16 90m 7 172m 6 135m 3 92m dnp
Babbitt out and other out -3 889m -9 688m -4 2353m -3 1219m -4 1781m -3 889m -8 1764m -2 1767m -3 1905m -4 2353m

RPM and Andrew Bogut

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 11:20 am

ESPN’s RPM has Bogut well above average. I just do not buy this.  Look at following

  1. AI, Curry and Thompson on court with Bogut: 1174 minutes GSW plays 14 ppg better than average
  2. AI, Curry, Thompson in Bogut out”" 512 min GSW plays at +23 level!
  3. Curry Thompson in AI out Bogut in: 424 min GSW plays at +3 level
  4. Curry Thompson in, AI and Bogut out GSW plays at +8 level

In the immortal words of Arnold of the Book of Mormon, I hope someone at ESPN will “Man Up” and explain how Bogut is above average (Our Adjusted + – has him below average)

 

RPM: Griffin vs, Jordan

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 9:51 am

RPM handed down from ESPN.com has DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin pretty close in ability. Our Adjusted +- has Griffin much better. Take a look below how the Clippers play per 48 minutes (adjusted for opponent strength) for combination of players involving these two.

For example. Griffin in and Jordan out Clips play at +12 but with Jordan in and Griffin out Clips play at only +4.  With Jordan out and CP3 in Clips play at +24 With CP3 in and Griffin out CLips play at +12. With Jordan out and Redick in Clips are much better than with Redick and Jordan both in. With Griffin out and Redick in Clips are much worse. So how are these two guys equal in the “Real” + -?

Barnes Griffin Jordan Paul Redick Crawford Barnes Collison Dudley Green
Griffin and  other in 14 1300m 12 2834m 12 2340m 15 1919m 13 855m 12 1424m 14 1300m 10 1293m 11 1187m 9 436m
Griffin out and other in -4 373m dnp 4 492m 12 223m 2 115m -3 597m -4 373m -5 714m 0 504m -2 411m
Griffin in and other out 10 1534m dnp 12 493m 5 915m 11 1979m 11 1410m 10 1534m 13 1540m 12 1647m 12 2398m
Griffin out and other out -3 649m -3 1021m -10 529m -7 798m -4 906m -3 424m -3 649m 2 307m -6 518m -4 611m
Barnes Griffin Jordan Paul Redick Crawford Barnes Collison Dudley Green
Jordan and  other in 12 1324m 12 2340m 10 2833m 13 1860m 10 857m 10 1410m 12 1324m 8 1342m 9 1265m 8 454m
Jordan out and other in 1 348m 12 493m dnp 24 282m 23 113m 3 612m 1 348m -3 666m 5 425m -1 393m
Jordan in and other out 9 1508m 4 492m dnp 5 973m 10 1976m 11 1423m 9 1508m 12 1491m 12 1568m 11 2379m
Jordan out and other out 0 674m -10 529m 1 1022m -8 740m -2 909m -3 411m 0 674m 7 356m -3 597m 1 630m

April 15, 2014

ESPN’s RAPM: I don’t get it

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 5:16 pm

My colleague Jeff Sagarin and I have been doing Adjusted + -  since 2000. Therefore I was interested to see the “Real Plus-Minus appear last week. I don’t know  how the numbers are crunched but many don’t make any sense. Let’s take Hollins and Redick of the Clippers. On April 15 RPM has Hollins above average and  Redick below average. we have Redick way above average and Hollins way above average. Take a look below at how the Clippers have played (points per 48 better or worse than average ,adjusted for strength of opponent with) Redick and Hollins on and off the court with combination of other Clippers. Minutes are also listed. You can see Redick usually makes things better and Hollins usually makes things worse. Would love to see Dean Oliver post an explanation for why  the “real” numbers have Hollins better. I am waiting.

 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Barnes Griffin Jordan Paul Redick Crawford Barnes Bullock Dudley Granger Hollins
Hollins and  other in -14 147m -1 115m -39 4m 16 71m 7 33m 1 312m -14 147m 1 169m -6 161m -5 10m -4 468m
Hollins out and other in 12 1525m 12 2719m 10 2829m 15 2072m 12 937m 9 1710m 12 1525m -6 211m 9 1529m -8 184m dnp
Hollins in and other out 0 320m -5 352m -4 463m -8 397m -5 434m -15 155m 0 320m -7 299m -3 306m -4 457m dnp
Hollins out and other out 7 1862m -2 669m 4 559m 1 1316m 8 2451m 10 1678m 7 1862m 10 3177m 9 1858m 10 3204m 9 3388m

 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Barnes Griffin Jordan Paul Redick Crawford Barnes Bullock Dudley Granger Hollins Collison
Redick and  other in 5 347m 13 855m 10 857m 16 516m 12 970m 18 273m 5 347m 19 26m 13 497m dnp 7 33m 8 365m
Redick out and other in 11 1325m 11 1979m 10 1976m 14 1627m dnp 6 1749m 11 1325m -5 354m 6 1193m -8 194m -5 434m 4 1643m
Redick in and other out 15 622m 2 115m 23 113m 7 454m dnp 9 697m 15 622m 12 944m 10 473m 12 970m 12 937m 14 605m
Redick out and other out 2 1560m -4 906m -2 909m -4 1259m 6 2885m 6 1137m 2 1560m 8 2532m 7 1692m 7 2691m 8 2451m 10 124

2m

April 4, 2014

NBA Ratings April 4

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 7:54 am

Here are ratings based on equal weight for all games.

Rank Team offense defense rating
1 San Antonio Spurs 4.47 -4.00 8.48
2 Los Angeles Clippers 6.76 -0.56 7.31
3 Oklahoma City Thunder 5.03 -1.86 6.89
4 Houston Rockets 6.10 0.87 5.23
5 Miami Heat 2.12 -3.00 5.12
6 Portland Trail Blazers 6.03 1.29 4.74
7 Golden State Warriors 2.48 -2.15 4.62
8 Indiana Pacers -4.25 -8.31 4.06
9 Minnesota Timberwolves 5.53 1.98 3.56
10 Toronto Raptors 0.20 -2.63 2.83
11 Dallas Mavericks 4.36 1.55 2.82
12 Phoenix Suns 4.40 1.70 2.70
13 Memphis Grizzlies -5.59 -7.57 1.97
14 Chicago Bulls -7.83 -8.66 0.83
15 Washington Wizards -0.16 -0.44 0.27
16 Brooklyn Nets -2.01 -0.94 -1.06
17 Charlotte Bobcats -4.05 -2.99 -1.06
18 Atlanta Hawks 0.42 1.94 -1.52
19 Denver Nuggets 3.20 4.87 -1.67
20 Sacramento Kings 0.18 1.94 -1.76
21 New York Knicks -2.38 -0.47 -1.92
22 New Orleans Pelicans -0.93 1.22 -2.15
23 Cleveland Cavaliers -3.05 0.97 -4.02
24 Detroit Pistons -0.06 4.04 -4.10
25 Boston Celtics -5.17 -0.46 -4.71
26 Los Angeles Lakers 2.09 7.50 -5.41
27 Orlando Magic -4.06 1.80 -5.86
28 Utah Jazz -6.55 -0.50 -6.05
29 Milwaukee Bucks -5.62 3.00 -8.62
30 Philadelphia 76ers -1.63 9.88 -11.52

Here are ratings with game 1 of season given weight of .5 current game weight of 1, with the weight increasing linearly till the current game.

 

Rank Team offense defense rating
1 San Antonio Spurs 4.70 -4.05 8.74
2 Los Angeles Clippers 6.78 -0.77 7.55
3 Oklahoma City Thunder 5.07 -1.72 6.79
4 Houston Rockets 6.20 0.74 5.46
5 Miami Heat 1.50 -3.69 5.19
6 Portland Trail Blazers 5.63 1.10 4.53
7 Golden State Warriors 2.33 -2.13 4.46
8 Minnesota Timberwolves 5.50 2.28 3.22
9 Indiana Pacers -4.98 -8.07 3.09
10 Toronto Raptors 0.35 -2.69 3.04
11 Dallas Mavericks 4.60 1.61 3.00
12 Phoenix Suns 4.54 1.93 2.61
13 Memphis Grizzlies -5.73 -8.17 2.45
14 Chicago Bulls -7.88 -9.11 1.22
15 Washington Wizards 0.12 -0.49 0.62
16 Brooklyn Nets -1.75 -1.37 -0.37
17 Charlotte Bobcats -3.28 -2.86 -0.42
18 New York Knicks -2.07 -0.50 -1.57
19 Sacramento Kings 0.12 1.83 -1.71
20 Atlanta Hawks 0.08 2.09 -2.01
21 Denver Nuggets 3.42 5.49 -2.08
22 New Orleans Pelicans -1.29 1.14 -2.43
23 Cleveland Cavaliers -2.74 0.64 -3.39
24 Detroit Pistons -0.07 4.26 -4.33
25 Boston Celtics -5.18 -0.18 -5.00
26 Los Angeles Lakers 2.58 8.37 -5.79
27 Orlando Magic -4.28 1.79 -6.07
28 Utah Jazz -6.70 -0.47 -6.23
29 Milwaukee Bucks -5.15 3.33 -8.48
30 Philadelphia 76ers -2.43 9.67 -12.09

March 25, 2014

NBA Ratings MArch 25

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 6:53 am
Rank Team offense defense rating
1 San Antonio Spurs 4.25 -3.58 7.83
2 Los Angeles Clippers 6.63 -0.60 7.23
3 Oklahoma City Thunder 4.87 -1.89 6.76
4 Houston Rockets 6.16 0.59 5.57
5 Golden State Warriors 2.54 -2.41 4.95
6 Indiana Pacers -3.31 -8.25 4.94
7 Miami Heat 2.78 -1.72 4.50
8 Portland Trail Blazers 6.31 1.82 4.49
9 Minnesota Timberwolves 5.27 2.06 3.22
10 Toronto Raptors 0.31 -2.69 2.99
11 Phoenix Suns 4.52 1.81 2.71
12 Dallas Mavericks 3.78 1.11 2.67
13 Memphis Grizzlies -5.44 -7.58 2.14
14 Chicago Bulls -7.97 -8.74 0.76
15 Washington Wizards -0.15 -0.16 0.00
16 Atlanta Hawks 1.15 2.01 -0.87
17 Brooklyn Nets -2.37 -1.27 -1.10
18 Charlotte Bobcats -4.79 -3.43 -1.36
19 Sacramento Kings 0.50 2.23 -1.73
20 New Orleans Pelicans -0.69 1.09 -1.78
21 Denver Nuggets 2.75 4.57 -1.82
22 New York Knicks -2.25 -0.17 -2.09
23 Detroit Pistons 0.26 3.55 -3.30
24 Boston Celtics -5.42 -1.05 -4.37
25 Cleveland Cavaliers -3.43 1.25 -4.67
26 Los Angeles Lakers 1.47 7.20 -5.73
27 Orlando Magic -4.20 1.67 -5.87
28 Utah Jazz -6.47 -0.55 -5.92
29 Milwaukee Bucks -5.27 3.24 -8.51
30 Philadelphia 76ers -1.79 9.87 -11.66

March 24, 2014

UPdated NCAA odds

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 3:43 pm

Sweet 16

  • Florida 64% chance UCLA 36%
  • Stanford 58% Dayton 42%
  • UVA 52% MSU 48%
  • Iowa State 56% UCONN 44%
  • Arizona 74% San Diego State 26%
  • Wisconsin 61% Baylor 39%
  • Louisville 66% UK 34%
  • Michigan 53% Tenn 47%

Final Four Chances

South

Florida 50% UCLA 23% Stanford 17% Dayton 10%

 

East

UVA 31% MSU 27% Iowa State 24% UCONN 18%

Midwest

Ville 47% Michigan 21% Tenn 19%  UK 13%

West

Zona 46% Wisc 29% Baylor 16% SDS 9%

 

Chance to win title

  • Zona 18%
  • Ville 17%
  • Florida 15%
  • UVA 10%
  • Wisconsin 7%
  • MSU  and Michigan 6%
  • UCLA 5%
  • Iowa State and Tenn 4%
  • Stanford and UK  2%
  • SDS,  UCONN, Baylor 1%
  • Dayton <1%

 

March 20, 2014

NBA RAtings March 20

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 8:39 am
Team offense defense rating
San Antonio Spurs 4.48 -3.03 7.51
Los Angeles Clippers 6.75 -0.71 7.47
Oklahoma City   Thunder 4.61 -2.07 6.68
Golden State   Warriors 2.62 -2.62 5.24
Houston Rockets 5.76 0.53 5.23
Indiana Pacers -2.87 -8.08 5.21
Portland Trail Blazers 6.56 1.68 4.88
Miami Heat 3.23 -1.48 4.71
Minnesota   Timberwolves 5.20 1.33 3.88
Toronto Raptors 0.18 -2.78 2.96
Dallas Mavericks 3.65 0.95 2.70
Phoenix Suns 4.48 1.95 2.53
Memphis Grizzlies -5.34 -7.08 1.74
Chicago Bulls -7.76 -8.45 0.69
Washington Wizards -0.33 -0.30 -0.03
Atlanta Hawks 1.47 2.05 -0.58
Brooklyn Nets -2.84 -1.49 -1.35
Denver Nuggets 2.82 4.36 -1.55
Sacramento Kings 0.55 2.19 -1.64
Charlotte Bobcats -5.00 -3.27 -1.72
New York Knicks -2.03 -0.20 -1.83
New Orleans Pelicans -1.03 1.11 -2.14
Detroit Pistons 0.03 3.83 -3.80
Boston Celtics -5.49 -1.27 -4.22
Cleveland Cavaliers -3.73 1.13 -4.86
Utah Jazz -6.24 -0.64 -5.59
Los Angeles Lakers 1.48 7.18 -5.71
Orlando Magic -3.99 1.84 -5.83
Milwaukee Bucks -5.77 2.98 -8.74
Philadelphia 76ers -1.46 10.36 -11.82

March 19, 2014

NCAA Picks

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 11:52 am

Here are game by game picks

NCAA 2014

 

East

Round 1

Florida beats Albany

Pitt over Colorado

VCU over SFA

UCLA over Tulsa

Ohio State over Dayton

Syracuse over Western Michigan

New Mexico over Stanford (close)

Kansas over Eastern Kentucky

Round 2

Florida over Pitt (close)

UCLA over VCU

Ohio State over Syracuse

Kansas over New Mexico

Round 3

Florida over UCLA

Kansas over Ohio State

Round 4

Florida over Kansas


 

South

Round 1

Virginia over Coastal Caroline

Memphis over George Washington (close)

Cincinnati over Harvard

Michigan State over Delaware

North Carolina over Providence

Iowa State over NC Central

UCONN over St. Joe’s

Villanova over Milwaukee

Round 2

Virginia over Memphis

Michigan State over Cincinnati

Iowa State over North Carolina

Villanova over UCONN

Round 3

Michigan State over Virginia

Villanova over Iowa State

Round 4

Michigan State over Villanova

 

 

 

West

Round 1

Arizona over Weber State

Ok. State over Gonzaga

Oklahoma over North Dakota

San Diego over New Mexico State

Baylor over Nebraska

Creighton over Louisiana Lafayette

Oregon over  BYU

Wisconsin over American

Round 2

Arizona over Ok. State

San Diego over Oklahoma

Creighton over Baylor

Wisconsin over Oregon

Round 3

Arizona over San Diego

Wisconsin over Creighton

Round 4

Arizona over Wisconsin

 

 

 

Midwest

Round 1

Wichita over Cal Poly

Kentucky over Kansas State

St. Louis over NC State

Louisville over Manhattan

Iowa/Tennessee winner (probably Iowa) over UMASS

Duke over Mercer

ASU over Texas

Michigan over Wofford

Round 2

Wichita over Kentucky

Louisville over St. Louis

Duke over Iowa/Tennessee

Michigan over ASU

Round 3

Louisville over Wichita

Duke over Michigan

Round 4

Louisville over Duke

Final 4

Florida over Michigan State

Arizona over Louisville

Champion Arizona

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 16, 2014

NCAA Picks

Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 10:47 pm

Based on my friend and colleague’s Sagarin ratings, here are my odds on teams winning each region, semis and championship. I only listed teams with at least a 1% chance. I also believe the regions are of relatively equal strength, despite what some commentators said.

South  Region

Team Chance
Florida 27.60%
Kansas 22.50%
UCLA 11.80%
Ohio state 9.90%
Syracuse 8.40%
Pitt 6.60%
VCU 6.30%
New Mexico 2.70%
Stanford 2.10%

 

 

 

East Region

Team Chance
Vill 25.20%
Virginia 23.10%
Mich St. 18.70%
Iowa St 14.60%
UCONN 5.00%
Cinn 3.90%
UNC 2.70%
Providence 2.40%
Harvard 1.50%
Memphis 1.30%

Midwest Region

Team Chance
Louisville 36.30%
Duke 17.10%
Michigan 15.20%
Wichita 12.80%
UK 4.90%
Iowa 3.00%
Tenn 2.70%
ASU 2.20%
St. Louis 1.30%
Kans. St 1.20%
Texas 1.20%

 

West Region

Team Chance
Arizona 42.10%
Creighton 15.20%
Wisc 15.10%
San Diego St 6.20%
Ok St. 5.20%
Oklahoma 4.30%
Baylor 3.90%
Oregon 3.70%
Gonzaga 2.60%

 

Semifinal 1

Team Chance
Vill 14.50%
Florida 14.10%
Virginia 13.00%
Kansas 12.20%
Mich St. 9.40%
Iowa St 7.20%
UCLA 5.40%
Ohio state 5.00%
Syracuse 4.80%
Pitt 3.20%
VCU 2.70%
UCONN 1.70%
UNC 1.30%
Cinn 1.10%

 

Semifinal 2

Team Chance
Arizona 23.60%
Louisville 20.60%
Duke 8.50%
Wisc 8.10%
Michigan 7.10%
Creighton 6.80%
Wichita 5.60%
UK 3.20%
San Diego St 3.10%
Ok St. 2.40%
Baylor 1.90%
Oklahoma 1.70%
Gonzaga 1.50%
Iowa 1.30%

 

 

Championship

Team Chance
Arizona 18.10%
Louisville 10.90%
Florida 7.70%
Virginia 7.30%
Kansas 6.80%
Vill 6.50%
Mich St. 5.10%
Duke 3.90%
Iowa St 3.70%
Michigan 3.60%
Wisc 3.20%
Wichita 2.90%
Creighton 2.50%
Ohio state 2.30%
UK 1.50%
Syracuse 1.40%
Ok St. 1.40%
UCLA 1.30%
San Diego St 1.20%

 

 

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