Since Christmas the Boston Celtics have played like an average NBA team (.65 points better than average). This will not satisfy fans of the sports’ most storied franchise. Is there any hope for the Celtics to recapture their 2007-2008 level of greatness?

     The first point to make is that KG in his current level of health is not having a big impact. Since Christmas with Pierce, Rondo, Ray Allen, and KG on the court the Celtics have played 6 points better than average. When Pierce, Rondo and Ray are on court with KG out the Celtics have played around the same: 5 points better than average. I am not a doctor, but KG 2010 is not playing at his past level. His Adjusted +/- this year is -3. During his last 5 seasons his Adjusted +/- averaged out to +11. Unless KG can regain his previous abilities, it will be tough for the Celtics to make the conference finals.

  Still, there are ways for the Celtics to improve. Let’s partition all Celtic minutes played since Christmas based on which of Pierce, Rondo, and Ray Allen are on the court and see how things went:

• All 3 in : 5 points better than average.
• Pierce and Rondo in, Ray out- 20 points better than average.
• Pierce and Allen in, Rondo out- 9 points better than average
• Rondo and Allen in Pierce out-2 points worse than average
• At most one of Rondo, Pierce and  Allen in-10 points worse than average.

From these numbers it looks like when at least two of Pierce, Rondo, and Ray Allen are in the Celtics are ok. Having all 3 in does not make them that much better. Therefore, it looks like the Celtics would improve if they would rest Pierce, Rondo, and Ray Allen one at a time more often and lessen the time two or more of them are out.

For example, Pierce can be rested with

BOS      10.85 (    7.74   -0.11   -7.85    3.01    0.62    6.52)  110.14 minutes   50 appearances     3 A     14.38       33 $
T. Allen      R. Allen      Garnett       Perkins       Rondo         29.01 years       1299

This lineup plays 11 points better than average and rests Pierce.

To rest Ray Allen I would recommend

BOS      30.36 (   -0.19   -5.02   -4.83  -18.94   -0.47    4.48)   22.60 minutes   15 appearances     6 C     29.73       14 $
T. Allen      Garnett       Perkins       Pierce        Rondo         28.56 years       1809_BOS_2010
This lineup has played 30 points better than average.

To rest Rondo it appears that the quartet of Ray Allen, Wallace, House and Davis has played well recently (+58 rating in 15 minutes).

Also, the return of Marquis Daniels should create some lineups that can better rest  Rondo or Ray Allen,

In summary, things can go better even if KG’s level of play does not improve. But without a return to KG’s past level of greatness, it looks like no Championship in Boston this season.

By the way, Ray Allen is mentioned in trade talk. His Adjusted +/- is +10 this season (despite a decline in box score stats), so trading Ray Allen would really reduce the Celtics level of performance during the rest of the season.

Every time I watch the Nuggets on TV or read a blog entry I am bombarded with the fact that Melo and Billups are the two stars of this team.  Both players have PER ratings in the league’s Top 20. Ergo,  they must be great.

    Actually, I think there is strong evidence that Nene and Birdman key the Nuggets success far more than Melo and Billups.  Both Birdman and Nene have Adjusted +/- ratings around +19, which indicates that per 48 minutes played, they make their team 19 points better. Here are some numbers that should convince you that the media hype surrounding Melo and Billups is overblown. All numbers are adjusted for strength of opponent’s players.

• When Birdman and Nene are out (91 minutes) the Nuggets play 24 points worse than an average team.
• When Birdman and Nene are both in the Nuggets in 437 min play 17 points better than average.
• When Birdman and Nene are in with Melo out the Nuggets play 16 points better than average in 232 minutes.
• When Birdman and Nene are in and Billups is out, the Nuggets play 26 points better than average in 297 minutes.

I think these numbers make a strong case that Nene and Birdman deserve a lot more money!! Birdman has a -13 Adjusted +/- Defense Rating and Nene a -9 adjusted +/- defense rating. Their defensive abilities often do not show up in box score stats, but they certainly affect the final score.

It is now unbelievably February. Through the lens of Adjusted +/-, let’s review the performance of each team in January. Note that an Adjusted  +/- of +10 means the player played 10 points better than average in January; An Offense rating of +5 means his team scores 5 more points per game than they would if an average offensive player replaced the player; a Defense rating of say -5 means his team gives up 5 fewer points per game than they would if an average defender replaced the player.

Atlanta

  Few Hawks did well. Joe Johnson played poorly (-13 Points rating) primarily due to poor defense (+10 rating). Rookie Jeff Teague showed improvement due to his great defense.

Boston

The Celtics played poorly. Main culprits include  KG (-11 points rating). KG’s Offense rating was a very poor -21. This means the Celtics offense ground to a jalt when KG was in. Glen Davis (-14 points rating) also played poorly.

Charlotte

Nazr Mohammed played poorly (-8 points rating). Flip Murray (+11 Points), Gerald Wallace (+15 points) Steven Jackson (+8 points) keyed the Bobcats continued success.

Chicago

Luol Deng (+16 Points rating) continued his great play. John Salmons (+12 point rating) also was great. Everyone else stepped up their game a little bit, so it looks like the Bulls have gelled.

Cleveland

The King has a +21 rating for January and has continued his season long great play. Shaq has really improved. Through December his Points rating was -4 and in January it jumped to +4.

Dallas

The Mavs had a poor January due to poor defensive guard play. Barea (+7 defense), Terry (+9) and Kidd (+18) have all  killed the Mavs with their poor defensive play. The bright spot wasrookie Roddie Beaubois who played poorly through December (-15 Points rating) but played at at -3 level in January. James Singleton had a great Janauary (+16 rating, -11 Defense Rating).

Denver

    This team is totally keyed by the great play of  Nene and Birdman, both of whom had a +23 Points rating in January. Billups and Melo are not nearly as important as the media believes.

Detroit

Rodney Stuckey (+7 points rating) keyed their limited success. Ben Wallace (-14 Defense rating) has been a defensive  pillar of strength. Charlie V (-14 Points rating) and the backup centers killed the Pisotns in January.

Golden State

Andris Biedrins (-11 Points rating) has played poorly. Rookie Stephen Curry (+7 points rating) has been great.

Houston

David Andersen (+7 Points Rating) played very well. Chuck Hayes (-9 Points Rating , -11 Offense Rating) has killed the Rockets’ offense.

Indiana

 The Pacers have two stars . Danny Granger and Mike Dunleavy both have +10 points ratings for January and the season. Solomon Jones (-25 Points rating) and Troy Murphy (-14 points rating) have really hurt the team in January and all season.

LA Clippers

Marcus Camby, Baron Davis, and Chris Kaman (all +5 Points rating0 have been solid in January. Craig Smith (+22 point rating) has been fantastic.

LA Lakers

Ron Artest (-1 Point rating) has not been the same player since suffering a concussion and dealing with foot issues. Sasha Vujacic (+16 Points rating) has been great, Kobe (+16 Points rating) has played great while battling injuries. Gasol (+6 Points rating) and Odom (+9 Points Rating) have been solid.

Memphis

The wrong  Gasol got chosen for the all star team: Marc Gasol had a +22 point rating in January with a -18 Defense rating. Zach Randolph continued his great play (+10 Points Rating) while rookie Hasheem Thabeet slipped a bit( Points Rating of +9 through December and -1 in January). Sam Young (-15 Points rating) really hurt the Griz.

Miami

Alston, Arroyo, Jones, and Chalmers played poorly in January (-14 Point rating).  DWade continuted his wonderful play (+22 points rating). Dorrell Wright (+11 points rating in January) has been great all year.

Milwaukee

Charlie Bell (+10 Points rating) had a great month.

Minnesota

Rookie Jonny Flynn (-13 Points Rating, +12 Defense rating) continued to kill the Wolves on defense. Ryan Hollins (+1 Point Rating) greatly improved his play. Sasha Pavlovic (-25 Points Rating) killed the Wolves on both ends of the court.

New Jersey

Kenyon Dooling (+5 Points Rating) and Brook Lopez (+2 Points Rating) have been the main green shoots here.

New Orleans

Marcus Thornton (+9 Points rating) and Chris Paul (+8 Points rating) were a solid backcourt in January.

New York

Jonathan Bender (-22 Points Rating), Toney Douglas (-28 points rating) and Chris Duhon (-10 Points rating) have killed the Knicks. Gallo (+7 points rating) and Jeffries (+5 Points rating) have been solid.

OKC

KD with his +26 points rating was the league’s best player in January.  Jeff Green (-10 Points Rating) has hurt the team all season.

Orlando

Backup center Gortat (-1 points rating) has greatly improved in January while Brnadon Bass (-25 Points Rating) is struggling to fit in. Rashard Lewis (-14 Points Rating) has struggled all season.

Philadelphia

Nothing too interesting to report here.  Despite an excellent PER rating Marreese Speights (Points Rating of -10, Defense Rating of +8) has hurt the 76ers.

Phoenix

The Suns set quickly in January. Teams caught on to Frye and his points rating through December of +13 dropped to +2. Amare, Richardson, Hill, Dragic and Amundson had Points ratings for January between -9 and -11. Robin Lopez was the lone bright spot with a +9 Points Rating.

Portland

Amazing they are still afloat after all those injuries. Batum (+16), Bayless (+10), Miller (+13) and Webster (+13) all had great Point Ratings in January. The replacement centers (Howard  -18 and Pendergraph -14) have played poorly.

Sacramento

 The Kings had a dismal January. . Sergio Rodirguez (+18 Points Rating for Janaury) has been great all year.Beno Udrih’s Points rating in January was -4 which is a big drop from his +8 Points Rating through December. Udoka  (-10 Points rating) also played poorly in January.

San Antonio

 Bogans  and Hill (-8 Points Ratings) struggled in January. Duncan (+10 Points Rating) played to his usual All Star Level. Matt Bonner missed most of the month but has played at a +10 Points level all year and his return should really help the Spurs.

Toronto

The Raptors had a great month. Amir Johnson (+20 Points Rating -23 Defense Rating) and Maro Bellinelli (+14 Points Rating) were amazing, Calderon (+11 Points Rating) and Bosh (+9 Points Rating )  and Antoine Wright (+8 Points Rating) were also solid. Only rookie Demar DeRozan (-7 Points Rating) struggled.

Utah

The Jazz had an excellent January sparked by Deron Williams (+17 Points rating). AK47, Boozer and Korver all had Points Ratings around  +10 for January, so they also played very well

Washington

Despite the off court turmoil, the Wizards kept soldiering on. Butler and Jamison (+5 Points Rating) were solid. Brendon Haywood (+11 Points Rating, -17 Defense Rating) has been great all season and gets no respect. Foye (-12 Points Rating) and Boykins (-22 Points Rating) killed the Wizards in January.

Before the  announcement that Freeney may not play, the Colts were favored by 5 points. If we throw out the last 2 regular season games for the Colts and Saints (because they did not give a full effort), we find thet a least squares fit to the game scores tells us that the Colt offesne was 6.2 points better than average and the Colts defense was  4.4 points better than average. The Saints offense was 13.5 points better than average and the Saints defense was .1 points worse than average. The average NFL team scored 21.6 points per game so this analysis would predict

Saints score 21.6 + 13.5 - 4.4 = 30.7 points

and

Colts score 21.6+ 6.2 + .1 = 27.9 points.

So we start with a base prediction of 31-28 Saints based on overall team abilities. How do other factors influence our view about whether the teams will play better or worse than their “full season estimates?” Here is my gut feel.

• Freeney’s injury will really hurt. I know of no  mathematical way to quantify the effect of his injury, but my gut says this injury makes the Saints offense 3 points better.
• The Saints feast on turnovers. A turnover costs a team arounf 4 points. Counting the playoffs, the Saints have around a 1 turnover edge per game. I believe (and I guess the betting public does also) that Mannings great ability will neutralize the Siants usual turnover edge. Maybe this costs the Saints 4 points. (say 2 on offense and defense).

With these adjustments I predict Saints 32 Colts 30.

Almost surely 3 teams with better than .500 records will not make the playoffs in the Western Conference. Since firing coach Byron Scott after a 3-6 start, the Hornets have played much better. Still it looks like they may be one of teams on the outside looking in on April 17.  With better substitution patterns, I believe the Hornets can make the playoffs.

   Obviuously the Hornets’ success is keyed by their great point guard Chris Paul. His Adjusted +/- rating is +8 which means that after adjusting for who Paul has played with and against our best estimate is that he makes an average team 8 points better per 48 minutes. What is really surprising is that unsung rookie Marcus Thornton has been great; Adjusted +/- of  +7 points. Also I do not think the Hornets have noticed the great improvement in Julian Wright’s play (Adjusted +/- of +7).

  Here are some specific recommendations on how the Hornets can improve their performance:

• When Paul is in with Posey the Hornets play 8 points better than average. When Paul is in with Thornton or Wright the Hornets play 11 points better than average, The rest of the time Paul is in the Hornets play as an average NBA team. It seems like upping Thornton’s and Wright’s minutes would improve the Hornet’s performance.
• When Paul is out the Hornets (unsuprisingly) play poorly: 7 points worse than average. However, when Paul is out and Collison, Posey , Wright and Thornton are in the Hornets play 24 points better than average. Certainly this combo should be used more with Paul out. The rest of the time Paul is out the Hornets play 11 points worse than average.

Here is a summary of how well the Hornets main lineups play. For example, lineup 1A has played 496 minutes and is only 4 points better than average. (you may ignore the other numbers). Note linupes 1B, 2B, 3B, 8B 11B  2C , and 4C have played great.  All these lineups meet the criteria listed above They should certainly play more minutes. Many of the listed lineups play poorly and deserve fewer minutes.

       ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE       �
NOH       3.76 (    2.51    4.48    1.98   17.52    0.61    5.46)  496.31 minutes  145 appearances     1 A      2.80       29 $
D. Brown      Okafor        Paul          Stojakovic    West          28.96 years      10434_NOH_2010

NOH      -4.30 (  -11.26   -1.47    9.79  -30.11   -1.39    3.95)   97.48 minutes   30 appearances     2 A     -8.86      -18 $
D. Brown      Collison      Okafor        Stojakovic    West          28.50 years      10314_NOH_2010

NOH      -2.63 (    4.03    0.31   -3.72   18.43    0.79    6.33)   83.83 minutes   20 appearances     3 A     -5.15       -9 $
Okafor        Paul          Peterson      West          Wright        27.24 years      25024_NOH_2010

NOH     -18.51 (    4.43    1.74   -2.69   -9.30    0.18    5.25)   53.99 minutes   21 appearances     4 A    -27.56      -31 $
D. Brown      Okafor        Paul          Songaila      Stojakovic    29.47 years       3266_NOH_2010

        ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE       �
NOH      25.08 (   -1.06   -1.47   -0.41   -3.54    0.04    5.61)   42.54 minutes   33 appearances     1 B     20.31       18 $
D. Brown      Okafor        Paul          Posey         West          29.04 years       8898_NOH_2010

NOH      32.71 (    6.01    6.96    0.94   15.82    0.65    6.01)   40.60 minutes   29 appearances     2 B     33.10       28 $
Collison      Posey         Songaila      Thornton      Wright        26.48 years      22024_NOH_2010

NOH       8.26 (   10.36    5.87   -4.49   45.45    1.61    5.55)   39.53 minutes   28 appearances     3 B     10.93        9 $
Paul          Posey         Songaila      Thornton      West          28.28 years      13952_NOH_2010

NOH      -5.57 (  -14.83   -7.43    7.40  -51.16   -1.96    3.51)   36.55 minutes   16 appearances     4 B     -9.19       -7 $
D. Brown      Collison      Okafor        Posey         West          28.58 years       8778_NOH_2010

NOH      -5.44 (    4.60    2.04   -2.56   36.69    1.01    6.73)   33.39 minutes   25 appearances     5 B    -11.50       -8 $
Okafor        Paul          Posey         Thornton      West          27.36 years      12992_NOH_2010

NOH     -42.31 (  -20.77  -15.93    4.84  -35.86   -2.39    5.92)   32.43 minutes   19 appearances     6 B    -31.08      -21 $
Armstrong     B. Brown      Posey         Songaila      Stojakovic    29.55 years       3589_NOH_2010

NOH     -24.39 (   -9.17   -3.92    5.25  -10.93   -1.00    5.83)   30.03 minutes   14 appearances     7 B    -28.77      -18 $
Collison      Okafor        Posey         Thornton      West          26.90 years      12872_NOH_2010

NOH       6.79 (    8.17    7.99   -0.18   57.75    1.57    6.46)   28.53 minutes   16 appearances     8 B     15.14        9 $
Okafor        Paul          Stojakovic    Thornton      West          27.28 years      14528_NOH_2010

NOH     -30.66 (   -3.41   -0.09    3.32   -2.17   -0.39    5.23)   27.80 minutes   15 appearances     9 B    -31.08      -18 $
Collison      Posey         Songaila      Thornton      West          27.82 years      13832_NOH_2010

NOH     -42.15 (  -14.88  -17.09   -2.21  -79.49   -2.83    8.04)   27.60 minutes   16 appearances    10 B    -27.83      -16 $
Armstrong     Collison      Posey         Songaila      Thornton      26.97 years       5641_NOH_2010

        ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE       �
NOH      34.17 (    6.52   -0.70   -7.22    9.87    0.57    6.54)   26.78 minutes   17 appearances    11 B     32.27       18 $
Okafor        Paul          Posey         Songaila      Thornton      27.87 years       5824_NOH_2010

        ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE       �
NOH     -34.58 (  -22.69  -13.19    9.50   -9.04   -1.96    5.69)   25.27 minutes   19 appearances     1 C    -30.39      -16 $
Armstrong     B. Brown      Posey         Stojakovic    West          29.05 years      10757_NOH_2010

NOH      51.54 (   13.93   11.83   -2.10   66.51    2.17    5.01)   24.76 minutes   16 appearances     2 C     50.41       26 $
Paul          Songaila      Stojakovic    Thornton      West          28.20 years      15488_NOH_2010

NOH      11.08 (   -4.45    3.78    8.23   33.55    0.22    5.72)   21.51 minutes   16 appearances     3 C     13.39        6 $
B. Brown      Okafor        Paul          Stojakovic    West          27.82 years      10436_NOH_2010

NOH      40.34 (   12.07    9.26   -2.81   90.00    2.55    5.39)   21.23 minutes   16 appearances     4 C     36.18       16 $
Paul          Posey         Stojakovic    Thornton      West          28.42 years      14976_NOH_2010

The Magic appear to have the deepest roster in the league. They have superstar center Dwight Howard. Yet recently they have been struggling. Why?

    Let’s look at the effectiveness of the lineups the Magic use most often. For example, lineup 2A plays .14 points worse (per 48 minutes)  than average and has been outscored by 18 points in 15o minutes. This is the current starting lineup and it has not done well. But look at lineup 6A. The only different between 2A and 6A is Williams replaces Nelson at the point. Yet 6a is more than 40 points better than 2A. If  the Magic want to start Barnes that is fine, but then Williams should start. Why not make the following sequence of good lineups be the primary lineups used?

I believe that with their great flexibility the Magic will by the end of the season have more good lineup combinations than any other team in the East, and will be tough to beat.

Carter Barnes Howard Williams Lewis (6A +45 rating)

Carter Howard Lewis Nelson Pietrus (3A +15 rating)

Andersen Pietrus Redick Williams Gortat (7A +21 rating)

Andersen Barnes Howard Nelson Redick  (4A +56 rating).

These 4 lineups utilize 9 players. Of course, foul trouble can render this strategy impossible in some games, but these lineups play great and deserve more time. At the least do not play 2A more than the other, better lineups!

     ORL       8.74 (   12.91    3.73   -9.18   28.49    1.47    7.52)  273.89 minutes   83 appearances     1 A      3.15       18 $
Carter        Howard        Lewis         Pietrus       Williams      29.88 years      10824_ORL_2010

ORL      -0.14 (   11.79    4.41   -7.39   21.53    1.20    8.12)  150.56 minutes   50 appearances     2 A     -5.74      -18 $
Barnes        Carter        Howard        Lewis         Nelson        29.02 years       1610_ORL_2010

ORL      15.31 (    3.61   -6.57  -10.18   11.99    0.48    7.61)   69.45 minutes   34 appearances     3 A     15.21       22 $
Carter        Howard        Lewis         Nelson        Pietrus       28.64 years       3656_ORL_2010

ORL      55.55 (   15.36    8.76   -6.60   40.45    1.86    5.54)   63.29 minutes   26 appearances     4 A     55.36       73 $
Anderson      Barnes        Howard        Nelson        Redick        25.79 years       5187_ORL_2010

ORL       5.19 (    4.18    1.50   -2.68   10.63    0.45    7.80)   60.70 minutes   25 appearances     5 A     -1.58       -2 $
Barnes        Howard        Lewis         Nelson        Redick        27.54 years       5698_ORL_2010

ORL      44.63 (   21.09   14.71   -6.38   38.03    2.18    7.54)   48.47 minutes   28 appearances     6 A     36.64       37 $
Barnes        Carter        Howard        Lewis         Williams      30.26 years       8778_ORL_2010

ORL      21.27 (   -1.84   -0.93    0.91  -11.48   -0.41    5.32)   46.55 minutes   27 appearances     7 A     27.84       27 $
Anderson      Gortat        Pietrus       Redick        Williams      27.01 years      14369_ORL_2010

ORL       8.09 (   16.48    8.09   -8.39   47.42    2.12    4.58)   44.83 minutes   29 appearances     8 A      6.42        6 $
Anderson      Howard        Pietrus       Redick        Williams      26.65 years      14401_ORL_2010

ORL     -15.49 (    4.41    3.08   -1.33   20.92    0.72    7.72)   42.97 minutes   16 appearances     9 A    -26.81      -24 $
Barnes        Bass          Howard        Nelson        Redick        26.39 years       5190_ORL_2010

ORL       4.56 (   24.66   19.07   -5.59   56.95    2.84    4.28)   40.11 minutes   27 appearances     1 B      9.57        8 $
Anderson      Barnes        Howard        Redick        Williams      27.03 years      12355_ORL_2010

ORL      -1.63 (    5.30    0.83   -4.47   17.59    0.72    7.23)   39.39 minutes   26 appearances     2 B     -3.66       -3 $
Howard        Lewis         Pietrus       Redick        Williams      28.40 years      14912_ORL_2010

ORL     -36.26 (   -1.29    2.96    4.25    6.04   -0.06    5.86)   33.78 minutes   16 appearances     3 B    -35.52      -25 $
Anderson      Barnes        Gortat        A. Johnson    Redick        27.62 years       4259_ORL_2010

ORL      -6.19 (  -12.79   -6.61    6.18  -31.02   -1.54    6.20)   32.27 minutes   17 appearances     4 B      1.49        1 $
Bass          Gortat        Pietrus       Redick        Williams      27.62 years      14372_ORL_2010

ORL      10.92 (   17.03   11.98   -5.05   64.94    2.48    5.09)   31.77 minutes   19 appearances     5 B     16.62       11 $
Anderson      Barnes        Howard        A. Johnson    Redick        27.26 years       4291_ORL_2010

ORL      22.23 (   13.46    7.62   -5.84   46.01    1.82    7.85)   28.99 minutes   21 appearances     6 B     18.21       11 $
Barnes        Carter        Howard        A. Johnson    Lewis         30.49 years        714_ORL_2010

ORL     -15.60 (   -4.61    4.37    8.98  -21.48   -0.83    7.73)   27.75 minutes   17 appearances     7 B     -1.73       -1 $
Barnes        Bass          Gortat        Redick        Williams      28.00 years      12326_ORL_2010

ORL       0.31 (   12.65    4.89   -7.77   39.81    1.70    7.55)   25.64 minutes   20 appearances     8 B     -5.62       -3 $
Carter        Howard        Lewis         Redick        Williams      29.41 years      12872_ORL_2010

ORL       9.51 (   13.73   10.65   -3.08   15.81    1.20    7.64)   25.55 minutes   17 appearances     9 B      5.64        3 $
Barnes        Howard        Lewis         Pietrus       Williams      29.26 years      10818_ORL_2010

The Rockets have done surprisingly well without all star Yao Ming. Their problem is teams like Memphis and the Thunder have greatly improved, and this greatly reduces the chance that the Rockets can make the playoffs.

     The Rockets top 9 players are (by Adjusted +/- ratings) very close in ability.   In limited time we have Andersen (+5 rating) as their best player (on a per minute basis) and the disapointing Ariza (-3 rating) as the worst of their rotation players.

      We have another measure of player ability called Impact Rating. Impact rating works like Adjusted +/- except we look at how a team’s chance of winning the game changes when a pkayer is in and out of the game. To see the difference between a rating based on points and a rating based on chance of winning a game, suppose the Rockets are dowm by 20 points with 3 minutes to go and cut the lead to 5 points. This comeback would really help the Adjusted +/- of the players on the court for the Rockets, but would have little influence on their Impact rating. This is because the chance of the Rockets winning the game changed from say 2% to 0% in this 3 minutes spurt.

    When we look at the Impact Ratings for the Rockets it becomes clear who drives the Rockets success and failure on the court.

• Scola 34% Impact,  Landry +19%, and Andersen +27% drive the Rockets success.
• Ariza -18% and Hayes -18% drive their lack of success.

          We can also look at the Rockets key Impact players during the last 7 games:

• Scola, Landry and Andersen’s Impact ratings are virtually the same as their full season ratings.
• Hayes -45% has had much worse Impact while Lowry has had a -35% Impact. Ariza has a -25% Impact.

Our metric indicates  Lowry, Hayes and Ariza have recently been the primary culprits costing the Rockets games .

Here are some more comments on the Rockets:

• With Lowry and Brooks as the backcourt the Rockets play 5 points per game better than an average NBA team. The rest of the time the Rockets play like an average NBA team,
• In 29 minutes the trio of Hayes Lowry and Budinger filled out with a choice from Landry Scola, Battier and Ariza has played an amazing: 57 points better than average per 48 minutes (in 29 minutes.) These combos certainly deserve more time.
• Andersen has been great in his limited minutes. The Rockets should experiment to see if he can maintain his effectiveness over a few more minutes.
• Andersen +14 Adjusted +/- Rating in 4th quarter has been great in 4th quarter while Hayes (-13 Adjusted 4th Quarter +/-) has played poorly. To the Rockets credit Andersen plays more in 4th quarter than any other quarter and Hayes plays less in 4th quarter than any other quarter.
• Interestingly, Budinger is great in the 1st and 3rd quarters but mediocre in the 2nd and 4th quarters.
• Landry, on the other hand plays his best in 1st and 4th quarters , but poorly in the 2nd and 3rd quarters.

Here is a look at the effectiveness of the Rocket’s primary lineups.

For example, lineup 1A in 631 minutes plays only 1 point better than average.  Lineup 1A has lost by 33 points but is above average because this lineup faces tough opponents. Lineup 2A with Landry for Hayes is much better than 1A but plays less. 3A, 11A and 12A are great (all have Brooks, Lowry and Landry) and definitely deserve more PT. As a matter of fact the trio of Brooks, Landry and Lowry filled out with players excluding Hayes and Scola has played 14 points better than average in 255 minutes. This is the Rockets at their best.

       ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE       �
HOU       1.10 (    1.27   -0.76   -2.04   -1.57   -0.07    2.37)  631.53 minutes  181 appearances     1 A     -2.51      -33 $
Ariza         Battier       Brooks        Hayes         Scola         27.40 years       4238_HOU_2010

HOU       9.18 (    2.45    3.72    1.27   35.00    0.76    2.25)  132.40 minutes   89 appearances     2 A      4.35       12 $
Ariza         Battier       Brooks        Landry        Scola         27.35 years       4366_HOU_2010

HOU      19.96 (    9.96   10.78    0.82   32.54    1.34    2.11)   98.63 minutes   59 appearances     3 A     20.93       43 $
Andersen      Brooks        Budinger      Landry        Lowry         25.23 years        793_HOU_2010

HOU      -3.17 (    8.29    6.91   -1.37   22.92    1.02    2.04)   96.63 minutes   53 appearances     4 A     -2.48       -5 $
Andersen      Battier       Budinger      Landry        Lowry         26.50 years        789_HOU_2010

HOU      10.65 (    3.88    3.10   -0.78    9.50    0.44    2.95)   95.45 minutes   56 appearances     5 A     13.08       26 $
Andersen      Ariza         Budinger      Landry        Lowry         25.14 years        787_HOU_2010

HOU     -19.28 (   -0.20    2.45    2.65   15.64    0.19    1.75)   65.26 minutes   53 appearances     6 A    -19.12      -26 $
Ariza         Budinger      Landry        Lowry         Scola         25.17 years       4882_HOU_2010

HOU       1.60 (    2.40    2.68    0.28   20.02    0.46    2.25)   57.07 minutes   39 appearances     7 A     -1.68       -2 $
Ariza         Brooks        Landry        Lowry         Scola         25.84 years       4874_HOU_2010

HOU      -3.12 (    0.23    0.91    0.68  -16.15   -0.36    2.32)   51.78 minutes   29 appearances     8 A     -3.71       -4 $
Ariza         Battier       Brooks        Hayes         Landry        26.72 years        398_HOU_2010

HOU       2.40 (    0.73   -1.18   -1.91   10.40    0.14    1.86)   51.22 minutes   33 appearances     9 A      1.87        2 $
Ariza         Battier       Landry        Lowry         Scola         27.11 years       4870_HOU_2010

HOU       0.75 (    6.48    3.33   -3.16   13.89    0.71    3.10)   48.67 minutes   31 appearances    10 A      2.96        3 $
Andersen      Ariza         Brooks        Landry        Lowry         25.81 years        779_HOU_2010

        ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE       �
HOU      16.92 (    2.69    0.68   -2.01  -18.21   -0.23    2.27)   44.11 minutes   42 appearances    11 A     10.88       10 $
Ariza         Battier       Brooks        Landry        Lowry         26.17 years        782_HOU_2010

HOU      19.44 (   10.89    7.14   -3.75   27.31    1.29    1.98)   42.70 minutes   22 appearances    12 A     23.61       21 $
Andersen      Battier       Brooks        Landry        Lowry         27.17 years        781_HOU_2010

        ACTUAL    THEORY     OFF     DEF  IMPACT  ZSCORE   SIGMA     PLAYING TIME                             SIMPLE       �
HOU       9.02 (    4.81   -0.54   -5.35    4.27    0.39    2.95)   38.51 minutes   24 appearances     1 B      9.97        8 $
Andersen      Ariza         Battier       Landry        Lowry         27.08 years        775_HOU_2010

HOU      -2.92 (   -0.44   -5.67   -5.22  -26.17   -0.69    1.95)   36.71 minutes   23 appearances     2 B     -3.92       -3 $
Ariza         Battier       Hayes         Lowry         Scola         27.16 years       4742_HOU_2010

The Bulls are in a tough fight for the 8th and final Eastern Conference playoff slot. Can they do better? Let’s look at how some 4 man combos play

• Deng Hinrich Noah Rose no Miller 408 min +2 (2 points better than average per 48 min)
• Deng Hinrich Noah Salmons no Miller 198 min +4
• Deng Hinrich Rose Salmons no Miller 149 min +3
• Deng Noah Rose Salmons no Miller 553 min -1
• Hinrich Noah Rose Salmons 173 min +0.
• Deng Miller Salmons Hinrich 160 min +18

The quartet of Deng Miller Salmons Hinrich (with Gibson, Noah, Thomas or Rose) is  great for the Bulls. They should use it more.

   Another major problem for the Bulls is that they play poorly (19 points worse than average per 48 minutes) when Deng is out. Fortunately there are two decent lineups to play when Deng is out. Both the lineups below rest Deng and play at about an average NBA level.

• Hinrich, Johnson, Miller Salmons and Thomas
• Gibson, Hinrich, Miller Rose and Salmons.

Based on all games through MLK Day, the three best players by Adjusted +/- ratings are Dirk, LeBron, and DWade in a virtually dead heat. After adjusting for the abilities of their opponents and teammates all three players rate 23 points per game better than an average player. The greatly improved KD is 4th (+18 points.)

  Of course, I will be criticized for not having Kobe at the top of our list. Kobe is a great player (his Adjusted +/- is 12 points per game better than an average player), but due to the fact he has much better teammates than Dirk, LeBron and DWade , I think many people overestimate Kobe’s abilities.   For the algebraically minded reader, here is an analysis of why Kobe (based on play this year)  is probably not  25 points better than an average player.

    With Kobe in the Lakers have played 11 points better than average.  65% of the time Kobe is in with Artest, 67% of the time he is in with Odom and 49% of the time he is in with Gasol. Thus on average Kobe is on the court with 1.8 of these excellent players and 2.2 other (not so good players).

Let’s assume Gasol, Artest and Odom average 5 points better than average (this is consistent with their past abilities and our estimates from this year). Then

(Kobe ability)+ 1.8(average ability of RA, PG and LO) + 2.2(Average ability of other Lakers) = 11

Let’s put in Kobe ability = +25 . Then we get

25 +1.8(5) +2.2(Average ability of other Lakers) = 11

or Average ability of other Lakers is around -10 points. There is no way the other Laker players are this bad.  Farmar, Fisher, Bynum, Brown, Walton and Mbenga may not be superstars, but they are just not this bad.

Well let’s suppose that RA, PG and LO are just average players. Then for Kobe to be 25 points better than average we  must have

25 + 1.8(0) +2.2(Average ability of other Lakers) = 11

or Average ability of other Lakers = -6 points.

Estimating other Lakers to be 6 points below an average player seems plausible. Therefore, if you want to believe Kobe is as good as Dirk, LeBron, or DWade, you should believe that Odom, Gasol and Artest (together) are of average ability. If you believe that, fine. I don’t believe that PG, RA and LO are average players!

Using the  great USA TODAY Sagarin ratings we played out the rest of the NFL playoffs. Here are the chances of various outcomes

• 63% chance Colts win AFC; 37% chance Jets win AFC.
• 64% chance Saints win NFC; 36% chance Vikings win NFC
• 33% chance Colts win Super Bowl, 33% chance Saints win Super Bowl; 17% chance Jets win Super Bowl; 17% chance Vikings win Super Bowl.